U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Tigres UANL prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

U.N.A.M. - PumasDrawTigres UANL

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 03:10

Before kick-off · Match result · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with U.N.A.M. - Pumas just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 37%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Tigres UANLBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

U.N.A.M. - Pumas win37%

Draw28%

Tigres UANL win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 03:10

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Olímpico Universitario

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Tigres UANL

3Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · u.n.a.m. - pumas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

37% The market34%

Us37%

~~Market~~34%

We make U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Tigres UANL~~1.33 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~12 v 14

~~The market · U.N.A.M. - Pumas win~~34% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · U.N.A.M. - Pumas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win	37%	34%	+3
Draw	28%	28%	0
Tigres UANL win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw	66%	62%	+4
U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet	29%	–	–
Tigres UANL clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 8.7 8.5 6.0 2.5 1 9.0 13.5 7.8 3.3 2 6.6 8.2 5.2 2.2 3 3.0 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+U.N.A.M. - Pumas down, Tigres UANL across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,816 Liga MX matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tigres UANL away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 1.26 for Tigres UANL. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIG 0–1 UNA · UNA 1–1 TIG · TIG 2–1 UNA · UNA 1–3 TIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 13 Sept

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS

LDLDWL0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–2

TIGRES UANL

DLWWDL0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5