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U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Cruz Azul

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

3–3Full time

Cruz Azul

Liga MX · MON 12 OCT · Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 05:00

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Cruz Azul U.N.A.M. - PUMAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said U.N.A.M. - Pumas win~~38%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said U.N.A.M. - Pumas win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: U.N.A.M. - Pumas was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–36
1′KICK-OFF U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Cruz Azul
2′Much as we predicted: U.N.A.M. - Pumas was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–36
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–0 Cruz Azul
11′U.N.A.M. - Pumas find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
12′U.N.A.M. - Pumas find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
13′We published U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
15′We published U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
16′We published U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 38%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–10–5
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0 Cruz Azul · Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 86% now
17′We published U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 38%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 86% now
19′Cesar Huerta scores for U.N.A.M. - Pumas on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
19′⚽ GOAL · 16' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0 Cruz Azul · Cesar Huerta (assist Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio)
21′Cesar Huerta scores for U.N.A.M. - Pumas on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 38% at kick-off, 87% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Jesús Orozco · Cruz Azul
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Cesar Huerta · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
37′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Agustín Palavecino · Cruz Azul
38′🟥 RED CARD · 38' Cesar Huerta · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Cruz Azul · Cesar Huerta
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Cruz Azul · Agustín Palavecino (assist Jorge Rodarte)
45′HALF-TIME U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Cruz Azul
46′SECOND HALF U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Cruz Azul
46′⚽ GOAL · 48' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Cruz Azul · Agustín Palavecino (assist Jorge Rodarte)
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Cruz Azul · Agustín Palavecino (assist Jorge Rodarte)
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–1 Cruz Azul · Robert Morales
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–2 Cruz Azul · Gabriel Fernández
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Antonio Leone · Off: Adalberto Carrasquilla Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Victor Arteaga · Off: Rodrigo López Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Ángel Azuaje · Off: Nathanael Ananias Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Luciano Herrera · Off: Pedro Vite Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Cruz Azul · On: Alan Mozo · Off: Willer Ditta Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Cruz Azul · On: Juan José Calero Sierra · Off: Gabriel Fernández Corrected
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Cruz Azul · Andrés Montaño
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Cruz Azul · Osinachi Ebere
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Cruz Azul · On: Luka Romero · Off: Carlos Rodriguez Corrected
FTFULL TIME U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Cruz Azul
FTU.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Cruz Azul · U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

U.N.A.M. - Pumas win38%

Draw27%

Cruz Azul win35%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 02:15

VenueEstadio Olímpico Universitario

RefereeIsmael Rosario Lopez Penuelas

Line-ups

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

4-4-2

Cruz Azul

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Cruz Azul

15Days since last match16

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

4-4-2

1 K. Navas

7 R. Lopez

6 Nathan Silva

5 R. Duarte

2 P. Bennevendo

21 U. Antuna

8 A. Carrasquilla

45 P. Vite

10 C. S. Huerta Valera

31 R. Morales

23 Juninho

Coach · Esteban Solari

Substitutes

35 · P. Lara

19 · J. Rivas

24 · T. Leone

34 · A. Azuaje

77 · A. Angulo

18 · V. Arteaga

15 · I. Luna

22 · A. Medina

14 · L. Herrera

30 · S. Lopez

Cruz Azul

4-2-3-1

23 K. Mier

22 J. Rodarte

4 W. Ditta

5 J. Orozco

3 O. Campos

16 J. Marquez

6 E. Lira

19 C. Rodriguez

7 N. Ibanez

8 A. Palavecino

21 G. Fernandez

Coach · Joel Huiqui

Substitutes

1 · A. Gudino

33 · G. Piovi

2 · A. Mozo

12 · A. Montes

17 · A. Garcia

10 · A. Montano

60 · A. Castro

14 · J. Calero

11 · C. Ebere

18 · L. Romero

Our number · u.n.a.m. - pumas winPublished 12 Oct 02:00

38% The market27%

Us38%

~~Market~~27%

We make U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · u.n.a.m. - pumas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 28% to 27% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win	38%	27%	+10
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Cruz Azul win	35%	47%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−3
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw	65%	53%	+11
U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet	25%	–	–
Cruz Azul clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.0 7.3 5.7 2.7 1 7.6 12.6 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.4 5.8 2.7 3 3.0 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+U.N.A.M. - Pumas down, Cruz Azul across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,795 Liga MX matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.14 goals a meeting; 9 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 1.39 for Cruz Azul. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 14

~~Both scored~~9 of 14

~~Last meetings~~UNA 1–2 CRU · CRU 0–0 UNA · UNA 2–2 CRU · CRU 2–3 UNA

Form · last six in Liga MX

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS

DLWLDL1–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3

CRUZ AZUL

LWWWLD0–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	10	+11	21
2	Toluca	11	+10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	+7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	+7	19
5	Leon	11	+3	18
6	Atlas	11	−1	18
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	10	+1	15
9	Puebla	11	−1	15
10	Monterrey	10	+2	14
11	Tigres UANL	11	−2	13
12	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
14	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
15	Atlante FC	11	−5	11
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4