Toluca v Club Tijuana

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Toluca win at 62%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Toluca v Club Tijuana
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Toluca was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
5. 39′Club Tijuana find the net on 38′. 0–0 · 52–31–18
6. 39′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
7. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Toluca 0–1 Club Tijuana
8. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 24% now
9. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Club Tijuana win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Toluca win 52%)
10. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
11. 45′HALF-TIME Toluca 0–1 Club Tijuana
12. 45′SECOND HALF Toluca 0–1 Club Tijuana
13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Toluca · On: Federico Viñas · Off: Jesús Angulo
14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Toluca · On: Brian Garcia · Off: Diego Barbosa
15. 48′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–52
16. 50′Toluca have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 18–28–53
17. 57′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–57
18. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Club Tijuana · On: Mourad El Ghezouani · Off: Elias Manoel
19. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Tijuana · On: Adonis Preciado · Off: Joban González Cera
20. 61′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–44–16
21. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
22. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Toluca 1–1 Club Tijuana
23. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 40% now
24. 62′61′: Federico Viñas on the scoresheet for Toluca, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–45–16
25. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Club Tijuana win 60%)
26. 63′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–46–16
27. 64′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 37–47–15
28. 65′We published Toluca at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
29. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Toluca 2–1 Club Tijuana
30. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
31. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Toluca win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 48%)
32. 66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Toluca
33. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 36% now
34. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Toluca win 85%)
35. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Toluca 2–1 Club Tijuana · Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
36. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
37. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Toluca win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 51%)
38. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Club Tijuana · On: José Rivero · Off: Angel Zapata
39. 75′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 2–2 · 26–62–12
40. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Toluca 2–2 Club Tijuana
41. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 26% now
42. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Toluca win 88%)
43. 77′Yael Padilla scores for Club Tijuana on 75′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 24–66–11
44. 77′21 shots for Toluca, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 24–66–11
45. 78′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 22–68–10
46. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
47. 81′25 shots for Toluca, 10 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 18–74–8
48. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Club Tijuana · On: Francisco González · Off: Yael Padilla
49. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Club Tijuana · On: Jesus Gomez · Off: Ramiro Árciga
50. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Toluca · On: Jorge Diaz · Off: Alexis Vega
51. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Toluca · On: Érick Gutiérrez · Off: Nicolás Castro
52. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
53. 88′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–87–4
54. 90′Full time, 2–2. We called Toluca at 62% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
55. 93′We said Toluca at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–95–2
56. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Toluca win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
57. 100′Toluca have had 28 attempts to 12 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–1
58. FTFULL TIME Toluca 2–2 Club Tijuana
59. FTToluca 2–2 Club Tijuana · Toluca win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.