Toluca v Atletico San Luis

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Toluca win at 66%.
2. 3′KICK-OFF Toluca v Atletico San Luis
3. 5′Little has changed for our model: Toluca 66% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
4. 18′We said Toluca at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Toluca 1–0 Atletico San Luis
6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
7. 19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Toluca
8. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 62% now
9. 20′A goal for Toluca on 19′. 0–0 · 62–23–16
10. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
11. 42′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–30–16
12. 45′SECOND HALF Toluca 0–0 Atletico San Luis
13. 48′HALF-TIME Toluca 0–0 Atletico San Luis
14. 52′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
15. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 46–38–16
16. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
17. 59′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–15
18. 62′We said Toluca at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
19. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Toluca 1–0 Atletico San Luis
20. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
21. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
22. 69′Érick Gutiérrez scores for Toluca on 67′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–2
23. 71′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–54–13
24. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis
25. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 34% now
26. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Toluca win 34%)
27. 75′73′: Rafael Llorente on the scoresheet for Atletico San Luis, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–60–11
28. 78′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–66–10
29. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 24% now
30. 82′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–75–7
31. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 16% now
32. 85′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–82–5
33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atletico San Luis · On: Leonardo Flores · Off: Rafael Llorente Corrected
34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atletico San Luis · On: Juanpe · Off: Anderson Duarte Corrected
35. 88′Atletico San Luis have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 10–86–4
36. 89′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–4
37. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atletico San Luis · On: Miguel García · Off: David Rodriguez
38. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Atletico San Luis · On: Benjamín Galdames · Off: Sebastien Salles-lamonge
39. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Toluca win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
40. 93′We said Toluca at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
41. 95′1–1 at the end. Our 66% on Toluca misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
42. FTFULL TIME Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis
43. FTToluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis · Toluca win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.