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Tigres UANL v Toluca

Tigres UANL

3–2Full time

Toluca

Liga MX · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Universitario

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 06:31

Tigres UANL 3–2 Toluca TIGRES UANL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigres UANL win~~39%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.556

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.693

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tigres UANL win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tigres UANL was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Tigres UANL v Toluca
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Tigres UANL 0–0 Toluca
7′Tigres UANL ahead on 6′ through Juan Brunetta. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Tigres UANL 1–0 Toluca
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Tigres UANL win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
10′We published Tigres UANL at 39%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–14
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Alexis Vega · Toluca
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Tigres UANL 1–0 Toluca · Guillermo Martinez
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Tigres UANL 2–0 Toluca · Guillermo Martinez
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Tigres UANL 2–1 Toluca · João Paulo Dias Fernandes
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Brian Garcia · Toluca
45′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich · Toluca
45′SECOND HALF Tigres UANL 2–1 Toluca
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Tigres UANL 2–2 Toluca · Federico Viñas
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Tigres UANL 3–2 Toluca · Federico Viñas
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Tigres UANL 3–2 Toluca · Juan Brunetta
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Tigres UANL · On: Diego Sánchez · Off: Emiliano Gómez Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Tigres UANL · On: Vladimir Loroña · Off: Alan Franco Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Toluca · On: Jesús Angulo · Off: Alexis Vega Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Toluca · On: Santiago Simon · Off: Brian Garcia Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Toluca · On: Jorge Diaz · Off: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tigres UANL · On: Rodrigo Aguirre · Off: Guillermo Martinez Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tigres UANL · On: Jonathan Herrera · Off: Diego Lainez Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tigres UANL · On: Jesús Garza · Off: Juan Brunetta Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Toluca · On: Pavel Pérez · Off: Nicolás Castro Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Vladimir Loroña · Tigres UANL
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Franco Romero · Toluca
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Andres Pereira · Toluca
FTFULL TIME Tigres UANL 3–2 Toluca
FTTigres UANL 3–2 Toluca · Tigres UANL win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tigres UANL win39%

Draw27%

Toluca win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 04:00

Venue · Estadio Universitario

Referee · Daniel Quintero Huitron

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tigres UANL

4-2-3-1

1 N. Guzman

15 A. Franco

28 Joaquim

33 R. Guerrero

19 M. Lainez

8 F. Gorriaran

5 C. Araujo

16 D. Lainez

11 J. Brunetta

9 E. Gomez

22 G. Martinez

Coach · Manuel Vucetich Rojas Victor

Substitutes

25 · F. Rodriguez

32 · V. Lorona

14 · J. Garza

184 · I. Aceves

30 · D. A. Sanchez Guevara

6 · J. Vigon

34 · Simeone

77 · O. Herrera

17 · R. Aguirre

21 · R. Monreal

Toluca

4-2-3-1

22 L. Garcia

17 B. A. Garcia Caprizo

4 Bruno Mendez

6 F. Pereira

20 J. Gallardo

5 F. Romero

35 E. Gutierrez

11 Helinho

8 N. Castro

9 A. Vega

26 Paulinho

Coach · Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio

Substitutes

1 · H. Gonzalez

13 · Luan

2 · D. Barbosa

19 · S. Simon

25 · E. del Villar

24 · F. Arce

10 · J. Angulo

16 · F. Vinas

15 · P. Perez

29 · J. Diaz Price

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tigres UANL

4-2-3-1

1 N. Guzman

15 A. Franco

28 Joaquim

33 R. Guerrero

19 M. Lainez

8 F. Gorriaran

5 C. Araujo

16 D. Lainez

11 J. Brunetta

9 E. Gomez

22 G. Martinez

Coach · Manuel Vucetich Rojas Victor

Substitutes

25 · F. Rodriguez

32 · V. Lorona

14 · J. Garza

184 · I. Aceves

30 · D. A. Sanchez Guevara

6 · J. Vigon

34 · Simeone

77 · O. Herrera

17 · R. Aguirre

21 · R. Monreal

Toluca

4-2-3-1

22 L. Garcia

17 B. A. Garcia Caprizo

4 Bruno Mendez

6 F. Pereira

20 J. Gallardo

5 F. Romero

35 E. Gutierrez

11 Helinho

8 N. Castro

9 A. Vega

26 Paulinho

Coach · Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio

Substitutes

1 · H. Gonzalez

13 · Luan

2 · D. Barbosa

19 · S. Simon

25 · E. del Villar

24 · F. Arce

10 · J. Angulo

16 · F. Vinas

15 · P. Perez

29 · J. Diaz Price

Our number · tigres uanl winPublished 10 Oct 04:03

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make Tigres UANL a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tigres uanl win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigres UANL win	39%	32%	+7
Draw	27%	27%	+1
Toluca win	33%	41%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Tigres UANL or draw	67%	59%	+7
Tigres UANL clean sheet	28%	–	–
Toluca clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.8 7.8 5.6 2.4 1 8.7 13.0 7.8 3.3 2 6.7 8.5 5.4 2.4 3 3.2 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigres UANL down, Toluca across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,789 Liga MX matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 12 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigres UANL at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Toluca away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Tigres UANL, 1.28 for Toluca. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 04:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 16

~~Both scored~~11 of 16

~~Last meetings~~TIG 0–0 TOL · TOL 2–1 TIG · TIG 1–0 TOL · TOL 3–4 TIG

Form · last six in Liga MX

TIGRES UANL

WDDDLW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

TOLUCA

WWWWLD2–1 · 4–0 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca	10	+11	20
2	Club America	9	+11	20
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	+7	18
4	Club Queretaro	9	+5	17
5	Leon	10	+3	17
6	Atlas	10	−1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	9	+1	14
9	Puebla	10	−1	14
10	Monterrey	9	+2	13
11	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
14	Atlante FC	10	−3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	−3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	10	−18	3