Tigres UANL v Leon prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 06:30

Tigres UANL 0–2 Leon TIGRES UANL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigres UANL win~~58%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.086

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tigres UANL win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tigres UANL 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
1′KICK-OFF Tigres UANL v Leon
20′Ismael Díaz scores for Leon on 19′. 0–0 · 54–28–18
20′We said Tigres UANL at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–26–46
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Tigres UANL 0–1 Leon · Ismael Díaz
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Tigres UANL win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Leon win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Tigres UANL win 54%)
28′We said Tigres UANL at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–48
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 24–27–49
40′We said Tigres UANL at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Tigres UANL win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
45′HALF-TIME Tigres UANL 0–1 Leon
45′SECOND HALF Tigres UANL 0–1 Leon
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Sebastián Vegas · Leon
49′Tigres UANL have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 15–28–57
51′We said Tigres UANL at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Tigres UANL · On: Rodrigo Aguirre · Off: Jonathan Herrera
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Tigres UANL · On: Diego Sánchez · Off: Henrique Simeone
61′We said Tigres UANL at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Tigres UANL win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leon · On: Bryan Colula · Off: Fernando Beltran Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leon · On: Jose Rodriguez · Off: Ivan Moreno Corrected
73′We said Tigres UANL at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
74′14 shots for Tigres UANL, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 4–20–76
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Leon · On: Christopher Mora · Off: Jose Alvarado
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Leon · On: Diber Cambindo · Off: Sebastián Vegas
81′16 shots for Tigres UANL, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 1–14–85
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tigres UANL · On: Cesar Araujo · Off: Fernando Gorriarán
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tigres UANL · On: Ricardo Monreal · Off: Emiliano Gómez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Leon · On: Paul Bellón · Off: Edgar Guerra
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tigres UANL · On: jaidyn contreras · Off: Jesús Garza
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tigres UANL 0–2 Leon
91′89′: Diber Cambindo on the scoresheet for Leon, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Tigres UANL 0–2 Leon
FTTigres UANL 0–2 Leon · Tigres UANL win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tigres UANL are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tigres UANL 58%, draw 24%, Leon 17%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Tigres UANL v LeonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Tigres UANL win58%

Draw24%

Leon win17%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 04:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Universitario

Line-ups

Tigres UANL

4-2-3-1

Leon

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tigres UANL

Leon

4Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Leon	12	+1	18
13	Tigres UANL	12	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tigres UANL

4-2-3-1

1 N. Guzmán

14 J. Garza

15 A. Franco

33 R. Guerrero

19 M. Laínez

8 F. Gorriarán

34 Simeone

16 D. Lainez

9 E. Gómez

77 O. Herrera

22 G. Martínez

Coach · M. Vucetich

Substitutes

29 · J. Contreras

5 · C. Araújo

17 · R. Aguirre

184 · I. Aceves

32 · V. Loroña

21 · R. Monreal

25 · F. Rodríguez

30 · D. Sánchez

6 · J. Vigón

192 · E. J. Villavicencio Avila

Leon

4-1-4-1

23 Ó. García

7 I. Moreno

14 J. Romaña

3 Juan José Guevara Possu

5 S. Vegas

20 R. Echeverría

18 E. Guerra

6 F. Beltrán

13 D. Arcila

11 I. Díaz

19 J. Alvarado

Coach · J. Gandolfi

Substitutes

25 · P. Bellón

27 · D. Cambindo

4 · B. Colula

247 · I. Espinosa

203 · J. Lara

21 · S. Londoño

181 · Irving Martínez

185 · C. Mora

26 · S. Reyes

29 · J. Rodríguez

Our number · tigres uanl winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

58% The market46%

Us58%

~~Market~~46%

We make Tigres UANL a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tigres UANL v Leon~~1.83 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 18~~13 v 7

~~The market · Tigres UANL win~~46% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tigres UANL win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigres UANL win	58%	46%	+12
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Leon win	17%	27%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	51%	0
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Tigres UANL or draw	83%	73%	+10
Tigres UANL clean sheet	41%	–	–
Leon clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.7 5.0 2.7 1 11.1 11.6 4.8 2 10.9 9.6 4.3 3 6.7 5.9 2.6 4 3.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigres UANL down, Leon across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,807 Liga MX matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigres UANL at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Leon away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Tigres UANL, 0.89 for Leon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEO 1–2 TIG · TIG 0–0 LEO · LEO 1–0 TIG · TIG 2–2 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 6 Sept

TIGRES UANL

DDLWWD1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

LEON

LWDWDL1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	11	+13	24
2	Toluca	12	+10	21
3	Atlas	12	+1	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas	12	+7	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	+6	20
6	Club Queretaro	11	+2	20
7	Leon	12	+1	18
8	Monterrey	11	+3	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
10	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
12	Puebla	12	−1	16
13	Tigres UANL	12	−2	14
14	CF Pachuca	12	+3	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	−5	13
16	Atlante FC	12	−6	11
17	Necaxa	12	−10	9
18	FC Juarez	12	−23	4