Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - Pumas prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 07:00

Santos Laguna 2–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - PUMAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said U.N.A.M. - Pumas win~~41%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.679

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said U.N.A.M. - Pumas win at 41%.
2′KICK-OFF Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3′A red card for U.N.A.M. - Pumas on 2′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 33–26–41
3′🟥 RED CARD · 2' Nathanael Ananias · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4′Much as we predicted: U.N.A.M. - Pumas was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 33–26–41
6′We said U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 60–20–20
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Santos Laguna 1–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 41% at kick-off, 20% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Santos Laguna win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was U.N.A.M. - Pumas win 40%)
7′Santos Laguna ahead on 6′ through Eduardo Aguirre. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–20–20
10′We said U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–21–19
22′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Santos Laguna · On: Jonathan Geovanni Pérez Sánchez · Off: Efrain Orona
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 63–22–15
33′We said U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Diego González · Santos Laguna
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Santos Laguna 1–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Santos Laguna · On: Emmanuel Echeverria · Off: Diego González
46′SECOND HALF Santos Laguna 1–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Victor Arteaga · Off: Adalberto Carrasquilla Corrected
52′We said U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Renato Manuel Alves Paiva · Santos Laguna
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Mauricio Cuevas · Santos Laguna
68′We said U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Santos Laguna · On: Esteban Lozano · Off: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Santos Laguna · On: Esteban Lozano · Off: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Álvaro Angulo · Off: Rodrigo López
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
80′Franco Pardo scores for Santos Laguna on 80′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Santos Laguna 2–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Santos Laguna · On: L. Gómez · Off: Eduardo Aguirre
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Robert Morales · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Antonio Leone · Off: Pablo Bennevendo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Santiago Lopez · Off: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Emmanuel Echeverria · Santos Laguna
FTFULL TIME Santos Laguna 2–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FTSantos Laguna 2–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas · U.N.A.M. - Pumas win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

U.N.A.M. - Pumas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos Laguna 33%, draw 26%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 41%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - PumasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Santos Laguna win33%

Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas win41%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 04:10

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio TSM Corona

Line-ups

Santos Laguna

3-4-3

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos Laguna

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Santos Laguna

3-4-3

1 C. Acevedo

18 F. Pardo

25 Felipe Sánchez

14 E. Orona

3 M. Cuevas

23 F. Cáseres

21 Fran Villalba

7 D. González

19 E. Aguirre

29 Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez

10 E. Bullaude

Coach · Renato Paiva

Substitutes

28 · Jonathan Pérez

193 · Luis Gómez

17 · E. Echeverría

4 · J. Abella

6 · J. Güémez

33 · H. Holguín

20 · E. Lozano

5 · A. López

8 · S. Mariscal

77 · K. Palacios

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

5-4-1

1 K. Navas

21 U. Antuna

7 R. López

6 Nathan Silva

5 Rubén Duarte

2 P. Bennevendo

23 Juninho

8 A. Carrasquilla

45 P. Vite

10 C. Huerta

31 R. Morales

Coach · E. Solari

Substitutes

18 · V. Arteaga

34 · Á. Azuaje

14 · L. Herrera

35 · P. Lara

24 · T. Leone

15 · I. Luna

30 · Santiago López López

22 · A. Medina

19 · J. Rivas

77 · Á. Angulo

Our number · u.n.a.m. - pumas winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 02:42 · locked at kick-off

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - Pumas~~1.42 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~9 v 11

~~The market · U.N.A.M. - Pumas win~~31% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · U.N.A.M. - Pumas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos Laguna win	33%	42%	−9
Draw	26%	27%	−1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win	41%	31%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
Santos Laguna or draw	59%	69%	−10
Santos Laguna clean sheet	21%	–	–
U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 5.9 7.0 6.2 3.3 1 6.1 11.9 8.7 4.7 2 5.0 7.8 6.1 3.3 3 2.4 3.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos Laguna down, U.N.A.M. - Pumas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,811 Liga MX matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos Laguna at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). U.N.A.M. - Pumas away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Santos Laguna, 1.60 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNA 4–0 SAN · SAN 3–0 UNA · UNA 2–0 SAN · SAN 1–1 UNA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 6 Sept

SANTOS LAGUNA

LWWWWW0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 5–0

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS

WLDLDW3–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	11	+13	24
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Toluca	12	+10	21
4	Leon	13	+3	21
5	Atlas	12	+1	21
6	Cruz Azul	12	+6	20
7	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
8	Monterrey	11	+3	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
10	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
12	Puebla	12	−1	16
13	Atletico San Luis	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	13	−5	14
16	CF Pachuca	12	+3	13
17	Necaxa	13	−11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	−24	4