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Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro

Santos Laguna
5–0Full time
Club Queretaro

Liga MX · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio TSM Corona

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30
Santos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro SANTOS LAGUNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Santos Laguna win38%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.579
The market’s Brier score0.428

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Santos Laguna win at 38%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro
  3. 3′Little has changed for our model: Santos Laguna 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–34
  4. 4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Ezequiel Bullaude · Santos Laguna
  5. 15′PENALTY MISSED · 14' Francisco Villalba · Santos Laguna
  6. 29′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–11
  7. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Santos Laguna 1–0 Club Queretaro
  8. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Santos Laguna win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
  9. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
  10. 32′29′: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez on the scoresheet for Santos Laguna, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
  11. 34′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
  12. 44′Santos Laguna ahead on 44′ through Eduardo Aguirre. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  13. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Santos Laguna 2–0 Club Queretaro · Eduardo Aguirre
  14. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Santos Laguna win: 38% at kick-off, 92% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Santos Laguna 2–0 Club Queretaro
  16. 46′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Santos Laguna 2–0 Club Queretaro
  18. 58′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  19. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Carlo Garcia · Club Queretaro
  20. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Queretaro · On: Alejandro Alcalá Solorio · Off: Denilson Muñoz
  21. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Queretaro · On: Bayron Duarte · Off: Carlo Garcia
  22. 63′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Santos Laguna 3–0 Club Queretaro
  24. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Santos Laguna win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
  25. 64′Tahiel Adrian Jimenez scores for Santos Laguna on 63′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 65′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 69′Club Queretaro are down to ten from 67′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 69′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Diego Reyes · Club Queretaro
  29. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Emmanuel Echeverria · Santos Laguna
  30. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Santos Laguna · On: Aldo Lopez · Off: Francisco Villalba
  31. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Club Queretaro · On: Bernardo Parra · Off: Iker Benito Sánchez
  32. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Club Queretaro · On: Carlos Villanueva · Off: Enzo Giménez
  33. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Santos Laguna · On: Diego González · Off: Ezequiel Bullaude Corrected
  34. 78′Club Queretaro have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  35. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Bayron Duarte · Club Queretaro
  36. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Santos Laguna · On: Javier Abella · Off: Mauricio Cuevas
  37. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Club Queretaro · On: Juan Martínez Jr. · Off: Mateo Coronel
  38. 83′16 shots for Club Queretaro, 10 the other way, and they still trail 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  40. 90′87′: Javier Guemez on the scoresheet for Santos Laguna, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  41. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Santos Laguna 4–0 Club Queretaro
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Santos Laguna · On: Javier Guemez · Off: Eduardo Aguirre
  43. 94′Santos Laguna ahead on 90′ through Diego González. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  44. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Santos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro · Diego González
  45. 95′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  46. FTFULL TIME Santos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro
  47. FTSantos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro · Santos Laguna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Santos Laguna just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos Laguna 38%, draw 28%, Club Queretaro 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Santos Laguna v Club QueretaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Santos Laguna win38%
Draw28%
Club Queretaro win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio TSM Corona

RefereeMario Terrazas Chavez

Line-ups

Santos Laguna

3-4-3

Club Queretaro

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos Laguna

Club Queretaro

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Club Queretaro10+720
14Santos Laguna11−413

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Santos Laguna

3-4-3

1 C. Acevedo

18 F. Pardo

25 F. Sanchez

14 E. Orona

3 M. Cuevas

23 F. Caseres

21 F. Villalba

17 E. Echeverria

19 E. Aguirre

29 T. Jimenez

10 E. Bullaude

Coach · Paiva Renato

Substitutes

33 · H. Holguin

4 · J. Abella

28 · J. Perez

8 · S. Mariscal Murra

6 · J. Guemez

5 · A. Lopez

193 · L. Gomez

20 · E. Lozano

7 · D. Gonzalez

26 · R. Sordo

Club Queretaro

4-2-3-1

25 G. Allison

16 E. Gimenez

13 D. Reyes

2 L. Abascia

27 D. Parra

4 C. Garcia

5 S. Homenchenko

7 I. Benito

11 M. Coronel

17 D. Munoz

9 A. Avila

Coach · Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban

Substitutes

1 · J. Hernandez

12 · Paulo Victor

24 · B. Duarte

15 · C. Villanueva

29 · W. Madrid

20 · A. Alcala

8 · B. Parra

30 · J. Martinez

26 · E. Perez

23 · J. Robles

Our number · santos laguna winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
38% The market47%
Us38%
Market47%

We make Santos Laguna a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro1.35 – 1.26
Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 AugW4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 13 v 2014 v 4
The market · Santos Laguna win47% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0317 OCT 23:30
Our probability · Santos Laguna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Santos Laguna win38%47%−9
Draw28%25%+3
Club Queretaro win34%28%+6
Over 2.5 goals48%58%−10
Both teams to score54%60%−6
Over 1.5 goals74%79%−5
Over 3.5 goals27%37%−10
Santos Laguna or draw66%72%−6
Santos Laguna clean sheet29%––
Club Queretaro clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 8.6 8.3 5.9 2.5 1 9.0 13.4 7.8 3.3 2 6.7 8.3 5.2 2.2 3 3.0 3.8 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Santos Laguna down, Club Queretaro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.40
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsCLU 2–2 SAN · SAN 3–1 CLU · SAN 1–2 CLU · CLU 3–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug

SANTOS LAGUNA

DLWWWW0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

CLUB QUERETARO

LWWDWW1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Club America10+1121
2Atlas12+121
3Toluca11+1020
4Club Queretaro10+720
5Guadalajara Chivas11+719
6Leon11+318
7Cruz Azul11+117
8Club Tijuana11+116
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas12−116
10Puebla12−116
11Monterrey10+214
12CF Pachuca11+413
13Tigres UANL11−213
14Santos Laguna11−413
15Atletico San Luis11−512
16Atlante FC12−611
17Necaxa12−109
18FC Juarez11−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.