

Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro
Santos Laguna
Club QueretaroLiga MX · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio TSM Corona
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Santos Laguna win at 38%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro
- 3′Little has changed for our model: Santos Laguna 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–34
- 4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Ezequiel Bullaude · Santos Laguna
- 15′PENALTY MISSED · 14' Francisco Villalba · Santos Laguna
- 29′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–11
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Santos Laguna 1–0 Club Queretaro
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Santos Laguna win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
- 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
- 32′29′: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez on the scoresheet for Santos Laguna, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
- 34′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
- 44′Santos Laguna ahead on 44′ through Eduardo Aguirre. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Santos Laguna 2–0 Club Queretaro · Eduardo Aguirre
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Santos Laguna win: 38% at kick-off, 92% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Santos Laguna 2–0 Club Queretaro
- 46′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
- 46′SECOND HALF Santos Laguna 2–0 Club Queretaro
- 58′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Carlo Garcia · Club Queretaro
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Queretaro · On: Alejandro Alcalá Solorio · Off: Denilson Muñoz
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Queretaro · On: Bayron Duarte · Off: Carlo Garcia
- 63′We said Santos Laguna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Santos Laguna 3–0 Club Queretaro
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Santos Laguna win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 64′Tahiel Adrian Jimenez scores for Santos Laguna on 63′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 65′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 69′Club Queretaro are down to ten from 67′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 69′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Diego Reyes · Club Queretaro
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Emmanuel Echeverria · Santos Laguna
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Santos Laguna · On: Aldo Lopez · Off: Francisco Villalba
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Club Queretaro · On: Bernardo Parra · Off: Iker Benito Sánchez
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Club Queretaro · On: Carlos Villanueva · Off: Enzo Giménez
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Santos Laguna · On: Diego González · Off: Ezequiel Bullaude Corrected
- 78′Club Queretaro have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Bayron Duarte · Club Queretaro
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Santos Laguna · On: Javier Abella · Off: Mauricio Cuevas
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Club Queretaro · On: Juan Martínez Jr. · Off: Mateo Coronel
- 83′16 shots for Club Queretaro, 10 the other way, and they still trail 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′87′: Javier Guemez on the scoresheet for Santos Laguna, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Santos Laguna 4–0 Club Queretaro
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Santos Laguna · On: Javier Guemez · Off: Eduardo Aguirre
- 94′Santos Laguna ahead on 90′ through Diego González. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Santos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro · Diego González
- 95′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Santos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro
- FTSantos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro · Santos Laguna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Santos Laguna just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Santos Laguna 38%, draw 28%, Club Queretaro 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Santos Laguna win38%
Club Queretaro win34%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00
RoundApertura · matchday 12
VenueEstadio TSM Corona
RefereeMario Terrazas Chavez
Match timeline
All events
Santos LagunaMIN
Club QueretaroEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Santos Laguna
3-4-3
Club Queretaro
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Santos Laguna
Club Queretaro
Last match: 12 Oct · Liga MX
Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Santos Laguna
3-4-3
1 C. Acevedo
18 F. Pardo
25 F. Sanchez
14 E. Orona
3 M. Cuevas
23 F. Caseres
21 F. Villalba
17 E. Echeverria
19 E. Aguirre
29 T. Jimenez
10 E. Bullaude
Coach · Paiva Renato
Substitutes
33 · H. Holguin
4 · J. Abella
28 · J. Perez
8 · S. Mariscal Murra
6 · J. Guemez
5 · A. Lopez
193 · L. Gomez
20 · E. Lozano
7 · D. Gonzalez
26 · R. Sordo
Club Queretaro
4-2-3-1
25 G. Allison
16 E. Gimenez
13 D. Reyes
2 L. Abascia
27 D. Parra
4 C. Garcia
5 S. Homenchenko
7 I. Benito
11 M. Coronel
17 D. Munoz
9 A. Avila
Coach · Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban
Substitutes
1 · J. Hernandez
12 · Paulo Victor
24 · B. Duarte
15 · C. Villanueva
29 · W. Madrid
20 · A. Alcala
8 · B. Parra
30 · J. Martinez
26 · E. Perez
23 · J. Robles
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Santos Laguna
3-4-3
1 C. Acevedo
18 F. Pardo
25 F. Sanchez
14 E. Orona
3 M. Cuevas
23 F. Caseres
21 F. Villalba
17 E. Echeverria
19 E. Aguirre
29 T. Jimenez
10 E. Bullaude
Coach · Paiva Renato
Substitutes
33 · H. Holguin
4 · J. Abella
28 · J. Perez
8 · S. Mariscal Murra
6 · J. Guemez
5 · A. Lopez
193 · L. Gomez
20 · E. Lozano
7 · D. Gonzalez
26 · R. Sordo
Club Queretaro
4-2-3-1
25 G. Allison
16 E. Gimenez
13 D. Reyes
2 L. Abascia
27 D. Parra
4 C. Garcia
5 S. Homenchenko
7 I. Benito
11 M. Coronel
17 D. Munoz
9 A. Avila
Coach · Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban
Substitutes
1 · J. Hernandez
12 · Paulo Victor
24 · B. Duarte
15 · C. Villanueva
29 · W. Madrid
20 · A. Alcala
8 · B. Parra
30 · J. Martinez
26 · E. Perez
23 · J. Robles
We make Santos Laguna a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 47% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna win | 38% | 47% | −9 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | +3 |
| Club Queretaro win | 34% | 28% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 37% | −10 |
| Santos Laguna or draw | 66% | 72% | −6 |
| Santos Laguna clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Club Queretaro clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug
SANTOS LAGUNA
CLUB QUERETARO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlas | 12 | +1 | 21 |
| 3 | Toluca | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 | Leon | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 12 | −1 | 16 |
| 10 | Puebla | 12 | −1 | 16 |
| 11 | Monterrey | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | −2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | −5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 12 | −6 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 12 | −10 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Club America
Atlas
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
Leon
Cruz Azul
Club Tijuana
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Puebla
Monterrey
CF Pachuca
Tigres UANL
Atletico San Luis
Atlante FC
Necaxa
FC Juarez