Puebla v U.N.A.M. - Pumas prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PueblaDrawU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 03:00

Before kick-off · Match result · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

U.N.A.M. - Pumas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puebla 29%, draw 27%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 44%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Puebla v U.N.A.M. - PumasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Puebla win29%

Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas win44%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 03:00

RoundApertura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Cuauhtémoc

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puebla

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

9Days since last match9

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · u.n.a.m. - pumas winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puebla v U.N.A.M. - Pumas~~1.20 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 14 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~13 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puebla win	29%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Puebla or draw	56%	–	–
Puebla clean sheet	22%	–	–
U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.7 9.1 7.6 3.9 1 7.0 12.9 9.0 4.6 2 4.8 7.1 5.4 2.7 3 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puebla down, U.N.A.M. - Pumas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,819 Liga MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puebla at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). U.N.A.M. - Pumas away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Puebla, 1.52 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PUE 2–3 UNA · UNA 0–0 PUE · PUE 1–3 UNA · UNA 1–0 PUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 14 Sept

PUEBLA

LDLDDL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS

LDLDWL0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5