Puebla v Monterrey prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 04:30

Puebla 1–4 Monterrey MONTERREY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monterrey win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.418

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monterrey win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Monterrey 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 26–26–47
1′KICK-OFF Puebla v Monterrey
17′Monterrey ahead on 17′ through Diego Rossi. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–17–74
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Puebla 0–1 Monterrey · Diego Rossi
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
18′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 9–17–74
30′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 8–18–75
32′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Puebla 0–2 Monterrey
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 92% now
33′Hugo Cuypers scores for Monterrey on 31′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
35′34′: Lucas Ocampos on the scoresheet for Monterrey, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Puebla 0–3 Monterrey · Lucas Ocampos
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
36′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
37′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′HALF-TIME Puebla 0–3 Monterrey
45′SECOND HALF Puebla 0–3 Monterrey
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Monterrey · On: Daniel Aceves · Off: Carlos Salcedo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Puebla · On: Omar Moreno · Off: Heriberto Jurado
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Puebla · On: Eduardo Armenta · Off: Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Puebla · On: L. Hernández · Off: Eduardo Mustre
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Monterrey · On: Roberto de la Rosa · Off: Orbelín Pineda
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Monterrey · On: Lucas Orellano · Off: Hugo Cuypers
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monterrey · On: Iker Fimbres · Off: Diego Rossi
59′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
61′Monterrey ahead on 61′ through Roberto de la Rosa. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Puebla 0–4 Monterrey · Roberto de la Rosa
62′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Puebla · On: Ignacio Maestro · Off: Alonso Ramirez
67′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Puebla 1–4 Monterrey
68′Facundo Almada scores for Puebla on 66′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Monterrey · On: Jesús Corona · Off: Lucas Ocampos
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Puebla · On: José Pachuca · Off: Iker Moreno
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Iker Fimbres · Monterrey
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lucas Orellano · Monterrey
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Ricardo Chávez · Monterrey
FTFULL TIME Puebla 1–4 Monterrey
FTPuebla 1–4 Monterrey · Monterrey win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monterrey are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puebla 26%, draw 26%, Monterrey 47%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Puebla v MonterreyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Puebla win26%

Draw26%

Monterrey win47%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Cuauhtémoc

Line-ups

Puebla

4-2-3-1

Monterrey

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puebla

Monterrey

5Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Monterrey	11	+3	17
12	Puebla	12	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Puebla

4-2-3-1

28 R. Gutiérrez

12 I. Moreno

5 F. Almada

4 J. Vargas

7 F. Monárrez

24 A. Organista

16 A. Ramírez

27 B. Garnica

10 M. Tomás

25 H. Jurado

29 E. Mustre

Coach · Gerardo Espinoza

Substitutes

14 · E. Armenta

6 · J. Díaz

9 · L. Hernández

3 · A. Herrera

19 · I. Maestro Puch

8 · O. Moreno

20 · J. Pachuca

33 · J. Rodríguez

15 · Ó. Villa

195 · Alvaro Burgos

Monterrey

4-2-3-1

1 E. Andrada

2 R. Chávez

4 V. Guzmán

13 C. Salcedo

3 G. Arteaga

8 Óliver Torres

25 O. Pineda

18 Cesar Garza Cantu

9 D. Rossi

7 L. Ocampos

99 H. Cuypers

Coach · M. Almeyda

Substitutes

27 · R. de la Rosa

30 · J. Rodríguez

21 · L. Reyes

10 · L. Orellano

33 · S. Medina

11 · Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa

22 · L. Cárdenas

17 · J. Corona

5 · F. Ambríz

19 · A. Aceves

Our number · monterrey winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Monterrey a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puebla v Monterrey~~1.16 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 17~~12 v 8

~~The market · Monterrey win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monterrey win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puebla win	26%	24%	+2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Monterrey win	47%	51%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Puebla or draw	53%	49%	+4
Puebla clean sheet	20%	–	–
Monterrey clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.2 9.1 8.1 4.4 1 6.3 12.4 9.3 5.1 2.1 2 4.2 6.7 5.4 2.9 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puebla down, Monterrey across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,811 Liga MX matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puebla at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Monterrey away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Puebla, 1.63 for Monterrey. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–1 PUE · PUE 2–4 MON · MON 1–1 PUE · PUE 1–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 31 Aug

PUEBLA

WLDLDD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

MONTERREY

LDWLDW1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	11	+13	24
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Toluca	12	+10	21
4	Leon	13	+3	21
5	Atlas	12	+1	21
6	Cruz Azul	12	+6	20
7	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
8	Monterrey	11	+3	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
10	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
12	Puebla	12	−1	16
13	Atletico San Luis	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	13	−5	14
16	CF Pachuca	12	+3	13
17	Necaxa	13	−11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	−24	4