Home › Football › Liga MX › Puebla v Leon

Puebla v Leon

Puebla

1–1Full time

Leon

Liga MX · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 04:30

Puebla 1–1 Leon PUEBLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Puebla win~~37%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.778

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puebla win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Puebla was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–36
1′KICK-OFF Puebla v Leon
25′7.0 shots for Puebla, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–32–34
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Puebla 0–0 Leon
31′A goal for Puebla on 30′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 34–34–33
32′Puebla have had 8.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–34–33
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Puebla win 32%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Puebla 0–1 Leon · Ismael Díaz
45′SECOND HALF Puebla 0–1 Leon
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Jesús Lara · Leon
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Puebla · On: Eduardo Mustre · Off: L. Hernández
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Puebla · On: Ignacio Maestro · Off: Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Leon · On: Daniel Arcila · Off: Ismael Díaz
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Leon · On: Jordi Cortizo · Off: Fernando Beltran
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Puebla · On: Heriberto Jurado · Off: Omar Moreno
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Leon · On: Juan Dominguez · Off: Edgar Guerra
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Heriberto Jurado · Puebla
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Puebla · On: Oscar Villa · Off: Fernando Monarrez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Puebla · On: Eduardo Armenta · Off: Alejandro Organista
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Leon · On: Jose Alvarado · Off: Diber Cambindo
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Puebla 1–1 Leon · Ismael Díaz
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Puebla 1–1 Leon · Eduardo Armenta
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Puebla
91′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Jordi Cortizo · Leon
FTFULL TIME Puebla 1–1 Leon
FTPuebla 1–1 Leon · Puebla win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Puebla win37%

Draw28%

Leon win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 02:00

Venue · Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Referee · Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Puebla

4-2-3-1

28 D. Gutierrez

12 I. Moreno

5 F. Almada

4 J. Vargas

7 F. Monarrez

24 A. Organista

16 A. Ramirez

27 B. Garnica

10 M. Tomas

8 O. F. Moreno Villegas

9 L. Hernandez

Coach · Gerardo Espinoza

Substitutes

33 · J. Rodriguez

15 · O. Villa

20 · J. R. Pachuca Martinez

2 · A. Leyva

14 · E. Armenta

3 · A. Herrera

19 · I. Maestro

25 · H. Jurado

29 · E. Mustre

Leon

4-1-4-1

181 I. Martinez

7 I. Moreno

14 J. Romana

3 J. Guevara

26 S. Reyes

29 I. Rodriguez

18 E. Guerra

203 J. Lara

6 F. Beltran Cruz

11 I. Diaz

27 D. Cambindo

Coach · Javier Gandolfi

Substitutes

23 · O. Garcia

5 · S. Vegas

4 · B. Colula

25 · P. Bellon

33 · A. Villegas

20 · R. Echeverria

8 · J. P. Dominguez Chonteco

13 · D. Arcila

16 · J. Cortizo

19 · A. Alvarado

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Puebla

4-2-3-1

28 D. Gutierrez

12 I. Moreno

5 F. Almada

4 J. Vargas

7 F. Monarrez

24 A. Organista

16 A. Ramirez

27 B. Garnica

10 M. Tomas

8 O. F. Moreno Villegas

9 L. Hernandez

Coach · Gerardo Espinoza

Substitutes

33 · J. Rodriguez

15 · O. Villa

20 · J. R. Pachuca Martinez

2 · A. Leyva

14 · E. Armenta

3 · A. Herrera

19 · I. Maestro

25 · H. Jurado

29 · E. Mustre

Leon

4-1-4-1

181 I. Martinez

7 I. Moreno

14 J. Romana

3 J. Guevara

26 S. Reyes

29 I. Rodriguez

18 E. Guerra

203 J. Lara

6 F. Beltran Cruz

11 I. Diaz

27 D. Cambindo

Coach · Javier Gandolfi

Substitutes

23 · O. Garcia

5 · S. Vegas

4 · B. Colula

25 · P. Bellon

33 · A. Villegas

20 · R. Echeverria

8 · J. P. Dominguez Chonteco

13 · D. Arcila

16 · J. Cortizo

19 · A. Alvarado

Our number · puebla winPublished 10 Oct 02:00

37% The market32%

Us37%

~~Market~~32%

We make Puebla a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · puebla win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puebla win	37%	32%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Leon win	35%	39%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Puebla or draw	65%	61%	+4
Puebla clean sheet	28%	–	–
Leon clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.3 8.6 6.1 2.7 1 8.7 13.2 8.0 3.5 2 6.4 8.1 5.3 2.3 3 2.8 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puebla down, Leon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,789 Liga MX matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puebla at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Leon away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Puebla, 1.30 for Leon. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 12

~~Both scored~~6 of 12

~~Last meetings~~PUE 0–1 LEO · LEO 1–2 PUE · LEO 1–0 PUE · PUE 2–2 LEO

Form · last six in Liga MX

PUEBLA

WLWLDL3–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

LEON

WDLWDW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca	10	+11	20
2	Club America	9	+11	20
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	+7	18
4	Club Queretaro	9	+5	17
5	Leon	10	+3	17
6	Atlas	10	−1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	9	+1	14
9	Puebla	10	−1	14
10	Monterrey	9	+2	13
11	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
14	Atlante FC	10	−3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	−3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	10	−18	3