Necaxa v FC Juarez prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 04:35

Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez NECAXA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Necaxa win~~52%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.907

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Necaxa win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Necaxa 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Necaxa v FC Juarez
26′We said Necaxa at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
26′A goal for Necaxa on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Necaxa 1–0 FC Juarez
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Necaxa win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–8
45′SECOND HALF Necaxa 1–0 FC Juarez
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Necaxa · On: Miguel Rodriguez · Off: Matias Espindola
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Necaxa · On: Mauro Zaleta · Off: Carlos Vargas
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45+2' Necaxa · On: Danny Leyva · Off: Javier Ruiz
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Juarez · On: Denzell Garcia · Off: Jesus Murillo
52′10 shots for FC Juarez, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
52′HALF-TIME Necaxa 1–0 FC Juarez
52′PENALTY MISSED · 45+7' Julián Carranza · Necaxa
59′We said Necaxa at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
62′FC Juarez have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Juarez · On: Luca Dupuy · Off: Guilherme Castilho
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Necaxa win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Necaxa · On: Francisco Méndez · Off: Lorenzo Faravelli
68′16 shots for FC Juarez, 8 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
73′We said Necaxa at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Necaxa · On: Miguel Pedroza · Off: Julián Carranza
79′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Miguel Pedroza · Necaxa
80′We said Necaxa at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Juarez · On: Ricardo Oliveira · Off: José Luis Rodríguez Corrected
82′We said Necaxa at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Necaxa win: 52% at kick-off, 14% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Necaxa win 91%)
83′82′: Luca Dupuy on the scoresheet for FC Juarez, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 13–80–8
84′20 shots for FC Juarez, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 11–82–7
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Necaxa win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Mauro Zaleta · Necaxa
85′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Madson de Souza Silva · FC Juarez
86′We said Necaxa at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Oscar Estupiñan · FC Juarez
92′We said Necaxa at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
94′1–1 at the end. Our 52% on Necaxa misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Necaxa win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez
FTNecaxa 1–1 FC Juarez · Necaxa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Necaxa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Necaxa 52%, draw 24%, FC Juarez 24%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Necaxa v FC JuarezBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Necaxa win52%

Draw24%

FC Juarez win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Victoria

Line-ups

Necaxa

4-1-4-1

FC Juarez

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Necaxa

FC Juarez

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Necaxa	13	−11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	−24	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Necaxa

4-1-4-1

181 Javier Orantes

210 Joshua Alejandro Palacios Pulido

5 Kaiky Naves

3 A. Oliveros

88 C. Vargas

8 L. Faravelli

33 R. Martínez

10 J. Ruiz

21 M. Espíndola

13 Owen de Jesús González Ojeda

9 J. Carranza

Coach · Juan Reynoso

Substitutes

14 · M. Zaleta

6 · D. Leyva

208 · Leonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos

1 · C. Andrade

2 · E. Martínez

20 · F. Méndez

16 · P. Pedraza

27 · M. Pedroza

99 · M. Rodríguez

188 · Israel Tello Robles

FC Juarez

4-2-3-1

1 S. Jurado

33 F. Nevárez

3 J. Murillo

2 G. Sepúlveda

26 D. Piña

183 L. Silva

13 Rodrigo Dourado

9 Madson

8 Guilherme Castilho

11 J. Rodríguez

19 Ó. Estupiñán

Coach · T. Campos

Substitutes

23 · H. Ortega

21 · Ricardinho

250 · B. Molina

4 · A. Mayorga

17 · L. Martínez Dupuy

14 · E. López

5 · D. García

201 · J. Carmona

27 · Guillermo Ruiz

16 · J. Sigala

Our number · necaxa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

52% The market55%

Us52%

~~Market~~55%

We make Necaxa a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Necaxa v FC Juarez~~1.90 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~17 v 18

~~The market · Necaxa win~~55% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Necaxa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Necaxa win	52%	55%	−3
Draw	24%	24%	0
FC Juarez win	24%	21%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%	+5
Both teams to score	61%	55%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	77%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	38%	34%	+4
Necaxa or draw	76%	79%	−3
Necaxa clean sheet	29%	–	–
FC Juarez clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.3 4.6 3.3 1 7.5 11.0 6.2 2.6 2 7.9 9.5 5.9 2.4 3 5.0 6.0 3.7 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Necaxa down, FC Juarez across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,816 Liga MX matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Necaxa at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Juarez away: 0.50 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Necaxa, 1.23 for FC Juarez. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCJ 1–2 NEC · NEC 1–1 FCJ · FCJ 2–2 NEC · NEC 3–0 FCJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

NECAXA

LLLDLL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

FC JUAREZ

LWLDLL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	−4	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	13	−5	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	13	−11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	−24	4