Necaxa v Atlas prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 05:01

Necaxa 0–2 Atlas NECAXA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Necaxa win~~46%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.531

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Necaxa win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Necaxa 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Necaxa v Atlas
5′We said Necaxa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–21–55
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Necaxa 0–1 Atlas
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Necaxa win: 46% at kick-off, 24% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Atlas win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Necaxa win 24%)
6′A goal for Atlas on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–22–55
23′We said Necaxa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–57
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–59
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Necaxa win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
41′We said Necaxa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
45′SECOND HALF Necaxa 0–1 Atlas
48′HALF-TIME Necaxa 0–1 Atlas
56′We said Necaxa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Necaxa win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Necaxa · On: Javier Ruiz · Off: Matias Espindola
67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Atlas
69′Atlas are down to ten from 68′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 5–21–75
70′We said Necaxa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atlas · On: Jorge Rodríguez · Off: Ryan Mmaee
74′14 shots for Necaxa, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–79
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Necaxa · On: Leonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos · Off: Emilio Martínez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Necaxa · On: Juan Valencia · Off: Pedro Pedraza
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atlas · On: Manuel Capasso · Off: Kevin Zenon
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atlas · On: Edgar Zaldívar · Off: Elías Montiel Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atlas · On: Edgar Zaldívar · Off: Luís André Leite Esteves
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Adonis Frías · Atlas
79′16 shots for Necaxa, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–84
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Necaxa · On: Rogelio Cortéz · Off: Owen González
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Necaxa · On: Miguel Pedroza · Off: Carlos Vargas
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Atlas · On: Gaddi Aguirre · Off: Jorge Sánchez
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Necaxa 0–2 Atlas
91′90′: Manuel Capasso on the scoresheet for Atlas, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Diego Ochoa · Necaxa
FTFULL TIME Necaxa 0–2 Atlas
FTNecaxa 0–2 Atlas · Necaxa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Necaxa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Necaxa 46%, draw 26%, Atlas 29%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Necaxa v AtlasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Necaxa win46%

Draw26%

Atlas win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Victoria

RefereeVictor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez

Line-ups

Necaxa

4-1-4-1

Atlas

4-2-2-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Necaxa

Atlas

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Atlas	11	−1	18
17	Necaxa	11	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Necaxa

4-1-4-1

181 J. Orantes

2 E. Martinez

15 D. Ochoa

3 A. Oliveros

88 C. Vargas

16 P. Pedraza

99 E. Rodriguez

6 D. Leyva

21 M. Espindola

13 O. Gonzalez

9 J. Carranza

Coach · Maximo Reynoso Guzman Juan

Substitutes

1 · C. Andrade

33 · R. Martinez

5 · Naves

10 · J. Ruiz

17 · R. Cortez

210 · J. Palacios

8 · L. Faravelli

208 · L. Becerra

27 · M. Pedroza

90 · J. Valencia

Atlas

4-2-2-2

12 C. Vargas

3 J. Sanchez

19 A. Frias

44 J. Sanchez

16 M. Valenzuela

18 E. Montiel

15 P. Ramirez

20 K. Zenon

10 L. Esteves

9 F. Monzon

8 R. Mmaee

Coach · Hernan Crespo

Substitutes

22 · A. Sanchez

28 · M. Capasso

5 · J. Rodriguez

13 · G. Aguirre

26 · A. Rocha

6 · E. Zaldivar

27 · V. H. Rios De Alba

23 · S. Hernandez

203 · J. Martin

58 · A. Gonzalez

Our number · necaxa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

46% The market33%

Us46%

~~Market~~33%

We make Necaxa a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Necaxa v Atlas~~1.69 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~17 v 6

~~The market · Necaxa win~~33% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Necaxa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Necaxa win	46%	33%	+13
Draw	26%	26%	0
Atlas win	29%	41%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
Necaxa or draw	71%	59%	+12
Necaxa clean sheet	28%	–	–
Atlas clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 5.7 4.3 1 7.7 11.8 7.1 3.1 2 7.2 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.2 3.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Necaxa down, Atlas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,798 Liga MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Necaxa at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atlas away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Necaxa, 1.30 for Atlas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEC 0–1 ATL · ATL 3–2 NEC · ATL 0–4 NEC · NEC 0–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug

NECAXA

LDLLLD1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 3–3

ATLAS

LDLDWD1–3 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	10	+11	21
2	Toluca	11	+10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	+7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	+7	19
6	Atlas	11	−1	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	+1	17
8	Club Tijuana	10	+1	15
9	Puebla	11	−1	15
10	Monterrey	10	+2	14
11	CF Pachuca	11	+4	13
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	11	−2	13
13	Tigres UANL	11	−2	13
14	Santos Laguna	11	−4	13
15	Atletico San Luis	11	−5	12
16	Atlante FC	11	−5	11
17	Necaxa	11	−8	9
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4