Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 04:35

Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas MONTERREY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monterrey win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.732

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.720

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monterrey win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Monterrey was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas
10′A goal for Guadalajara Chivas on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–22–59
10′We said Monterrey at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Monterrey win: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Guadalajara Chivas win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Monterrey win 41%)
20′PENALTY MISSED · 19' Monterrey
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–62
31′We said Monterrey at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Monterrey win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas
46′SECOND HALF Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas
50′We said Monterrey at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Monterrey · On: Óliver Torres · Off: Fidel Ambriz
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Efrain Alvarez · Off: Richard Ledezma
67′We said Monterrey at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Jesús Hernández · Off: Omar Govea
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Kevin Castañeda · Off: Roberto Alvarado Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Monterrey · On: Paxon Levi Ruffin Tamez · Off: César Garza
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Monterrey win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Leonel Calderón Oviedo · Off: Bryan Gonzalez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Guadalajara Chivas · On: A. Chávez · Off: Daniel Aguirre
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Monterrey · On: Lucas Orellano · Off: Jesús Corona
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Paxon Levi Ruffin Tamez · Monterrey
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Diego Rossi · Monterrey
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Orbelín Pineda · Monterrey
92′A red card for Monterrey on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 0–3–97
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Monterrey 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Guadalajara Chivas win 98%)
98′90′: Diego Rossi on the scoresheet for Monterrey, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
99′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+9' Monterrey
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+9' Guadalajara Chivas win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
FTFULL TIME Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas
FTMonterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas · Monterrey win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monterrey are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monterrey 42%, draw 27%, Guadalajara Chivas 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Monterrey v Guadalajara ChivasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Monterrey win42%

Draw27%

Guadalajara Chivas win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio BBVA

Line-ups

Monterrey

4-1-4-1

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monterrey

Guadalajara Chivas

3Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monterrey

4-1-4-1

1 E. Andrada

2 R. Chávez

5 F. Ambríz

4 V. Guzmán

3 G. Arteaga

18 Cesar Garza Cantu

7 L. Ocampos

9 D. Rossi

25 O. Pineda

17 J. Corona

99 H. Cuypers

Coach · M. Almeyda

Substitutes

8 · Óliver Torres

13 · C. Salcedo

244 · Paxon Levi Ruffin Tamez

30 · J. Rodríguez

10 · L. Orellano

33 · S. Medina

22 · L. Cárdenas

14 · É. Aguirre

19 · A. Aceves

27 · R. de la Rosa

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1

1 J. Rangel

23 D. Aguirre

16 L. Rey

3 D. Campillo

37 R. Ledezma

28 R. González

6 O. Govea

5 B. González

25 R. Alvarado

30 Santiago Sandoval

17 R. Marín

Coach · G. Milito

Substitutes

33 · J. Carrillo

14 · H. Camberos

182 · L. Calderon

19 · K. Castañeda

56 · Á. Chávez

57 · J. Hernández

46 · C. Hernandez

59 · C. Inda

13 · Óscar Whalley

10 · E. Álvarez

Our number · monterrey winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Monterrey a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas~~1.48 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 23~~7 v 2

~~The market · Monterrey win~~41% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monterrey win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monterrey win	42%	41%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Guadalajara Chivas win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Monterrey or draw	69%	69%	0
Monterrey clean sheet	29%	–	–
Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.7 7.2 5.0 2.1 1 8.9 12.9 7.4 3.1 2 7.3 8.8 5.4 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monterrey down, Guadalajara Chivas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,818 Liga MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monterrey at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Guadalajara Chivas away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Monterrey, 1.23 for Guadalajara Chivas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–3 GUA · GUA 4–2 MON · MON 3–1 GUA · GUA 1–1 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 13 Sept

MONTERREY

DWLDWW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS

WDLDDW3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5