Monterrey v CF Pachuca prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 04:30

Monterrey 2–1 CF Pachuca MONTERREY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monterrey win~~47%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monterrey win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Monterrey 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Monterrey v CF Pachuca
13′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Monterrey 1–0 CF Pachuca
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
14′Monterrey ahead on 14′ through Ricardo Chávez. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
14′PENALTY MISSED · 13' Monterrey
16′Ricardo Chávez scores for Monterrey on 13′. 2–0 · 90–7–3
16′Jesús Corona scores for Monterrey on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Monterrey 2–0 CF Pachuca
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
17′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Lucas Ocampos · Monterrey
45′SECOND HALF Monterrey 2–0 CF Pachuca
50′HALF-TIME Monterrey 2–0 CF Pachuca
51′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
51′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Rodolfo Pizarro · CF Pachuca
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' CF Pachuca · On: Cristóbal Hernández · Off: Mauricio Isais
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Monterrey · On: Lucas Orellano · Off: Lucas Ocampos
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Monterrey · On: Óliver Torres · Off: Diego Rossi
74′We said Monterrey at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Monterrey 2–1 CF Pachuca
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 85% now
75′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–13–1
76′75′: Salomón Rondón on the scoresheet for CF Pachuca, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Monterrey · On: Paxon Levi Ruffin Tamez · Off: Ricardo Chávez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Monterrey · On: Stefan Medina · Off: Jesús Corona
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CF Pachuca · On: Gael Álvarez · Off: Javier Vallejo
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Sergio Barreto · CF Pachuca
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Gerardo Arteaga · Monterrey
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Carlos Moreno · CF Pachuca
86′We said Monterrey at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–86–6
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Monterrey 2–2 CF Pachuca
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Monterrey win 8%)
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' CF Pachuca
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Monterrey win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Pachuca · On: Illian Hernández · Off: Rodolfo Pizarro
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Pachuca · On: Sebastian Santos · Off: Jorge Berlanga
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Óliver Torres · Monterrey
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Monterrey · On: Jorge Rodríguez · Off: César Garza
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Monterrey win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Monterrey 2–1 CF Pachuca
FTMonterrey 2–1 CF Pachuca · Monterrey win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monterrey are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monterrey 47%, draw 26%, CF Pachuca 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Monterrey v CF PachucaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Monterrey win47%

Draw26%

CF Pachuca win26%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio BBVA

RefereeCesar Arturo Ramos

Line-ups

Monterrey

4-2-3-1

CF Pachuca

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monterrey

CF Pachuca

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Monterrey	10	+2	14
14	CF Pachuca	11	+4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monterrey

4-2-3-1

1 E. Andrada

2 R. Chavez

4 V. Guzman

13 C. Salcedo

3 G. Arteaga

18 C. Garza

25 O. Pineda

7 L. Ocampos

9 D. Rossi

17 J. Corona

99 H. Cuypers

Coach · Matias Almeyda

Substitutes

22 · L. Cardenas

33 · S. Medina

14 · E. Aguirre

19 · A. Aceves

30 · J. Rodriguez

8 · O. Torres

5 · F. Ambriz

244 · P. Ruffin

27 · R. de la Rosa

10 · L. Orellano

CF Pachuca

4-4-1-1

25 C. Moreno

13 J. Berlanga

4 Eduardo Bauermann

2 S. D. Barreto

6 M. Isais

21 N. Vallejo

16 C. Rivera

26 A. Bautista

11 O. Idrissi

7 R. Pizarro

23 S. Rondon

Coach · Benjamin Mora

Substitutes

31 · J. Eulogio

221 · U. Martinez

187 · G. Alvarez

32 · P. Budib

205 · A. Padilla

12 · S. Santos

30 · S. Rodriguez

19 · I. Hernandez

207 · I. Zavala

211 · C. Hernandez

Our number · monterrey winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

47% The market58%

Us47%

~~Market~~58%

We make Monterrey a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monterrey v CF Pachuca~~1.66 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~12 v 14

~~The market · Monterrey win~~58% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monterrey win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monterrey win	47%	58%	−11
Draw	26%	23%	+3
CF Pachuca win	26%	19%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Monterrey or draw	74%	81%	−7
Monterrey clean sheet	31%	–	–
CF Pachuca clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.0 6.0 4.1 1 8.7 12.3 6.7 2.7 2 8.0 9.3 5.5 2.2 3 4.4 5.2 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monterrey down, CF Pachuca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,806 Liga MX matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monterrey at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CF Pachuca away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Monterrey, 1.18 for CF Pachuca. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–3 CFP · CFP 3–0 MON · MON 1–2 CFP · MON 2–3 CFP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug

MONTERREY

LLDWLD0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–1

CF PACHUCA

DWWDLD1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	11	+13	24
2	Toluca	12	+10	21
3	Atlas	12	+1	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas	12	+7	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	+6	20
6	Club Queretaro	11	+2	20
8	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
9	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
10	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
11	Puebla	12	−1	16
12	Monterrey	10	+2	14
13	Tigres UANL	12	−2	14
14	CF Pachuca	11	+4	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	−5	13
16	Atlante FC	12	−6	11
17	Necaxa	12	−10	9
18	FC Juarez	12	−23	4