Leon v Toluca prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeonDrawToluca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Toluca 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Toluca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leon 28%, draw 25%, Toluca 47%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Leon v TolucaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Leon win28%

Draw25%

Toluca win47%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio León

Line-ups

Leon

4-1-4-1

Toluca

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leon

Toluca

3Days since last match2

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leon

4-1-4-1

23 Ó. García

7 I. Moreno

14 J. Romaña

3 Juan José Guevara Possu

5 S. Vegas

13 D. Arcila

18 E. Guerra

20 R. Echeverría

6 F. Beltrán

11 I. Díaz

19 J. Alvarado

Coach · J. Gandolfi

Substitutes

25 · P. Bellón

203 · J. Lara

181 · Irving Martínez

185 · C. Mora

26 · S. Reyes

29 · J. Rodríguez

8 · J. Domínguez

16 · J. Cortizo

4 · B. Colula

27 · D. Cambindo

Toluca

4-2-3-1

1 H. González

19 S. Simón

4 B. Méndez

6 F. Pereira

20 J. Gallardo

5 F. Romero

35 É. Gutiérrez

11 Helinho

29 J. Díaz

15 P. Pérez

16 F. Viñas

Coach · A. Mohamed

Substitutes

24 · F. Arce

8 · N. Castro

26 · Paulinho

13 · Luan

17 · B. García

22 · L. García

7 · V. Guzmán

25 · E. López

9 · A. Vega

10 · J. Angulo

Our number · toluca winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

47% The market49%

Us47%

~~Market~~49%

We make Toluca a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leon v Toluca~~1.29 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 22~~5 v 4

~~The market · Toluca win~~49% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Toluca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leon win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Toluca win	47%	49%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Leon or draw	53%	51%	+2
Leon clean sheet	18%	–	–
Toluca clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 7.6 7.3 4.3 1 5.4 11.6 9.3 5.4 2.4 2 4.0 6.9 6.0 3.5 3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leon down, Toluca across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,816 Liga MX matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leon at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Toluca away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Leon, 1.74 for Toluca. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TOL 2–0 LEO · TOL 4–1 LEO · LEO 2–4 TOL · LEO 3–3 TOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 15 Sept

LEON

WDWDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–5 · 2–0

TOLUCA

WLDLDD1–0 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5