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Leon v Club America

Leon

3–5Full time

Club America

Liga MX · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio León

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

Leon 3–5 Club America CLUB AMERICA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club America win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club America win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Club America was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 26–27–47
1′KICK-OFF Leon v Club America
24′We published Club America at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Leon 0–1 Club America
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
25′Club America ahead on 24′ through Henry Martin. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–17–75
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 7–17–75
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Jhohan Romana · Leon
35′Carlos Álvarez scores for Club America on 34′. 0–1 · 7–17–76
42′Full time, 0–1. We called Club America at 47% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Daniel Arcila · Leon
42′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' Franco Rossano · Club America
42′🟨 YELLOW · 45+8' Israel Reyes · Club America
45′We published Club America at 47%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
45′HALF-TIME Leon 0–2 Club America
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
46′We published Club America at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leon · On: Jose Alvarado · Off: Juan Guevara Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Leon 0–2 Club America
53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–17–78
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Leon 1–2 Club America
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
57′53′: Jose Alvarado on the scoresheet for Leon, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–17–79
57′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leon · On: Jose Alvarado · Off: Jesús Lara
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–96
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Leon 1–3 Club America
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
60′Club America ahead on 59′ through Erick Sánchez. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
61′Club America ahead on 58′ through Erick Sánchez. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Juan Guevara · Leon
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leon · On: Juan Dominguez · Off: Jose Rodriguez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leon · On: Ismael Díaz · Off: Edgar Guerra
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Club America · On: Edwin Cerrillo · Off: Erick Sánchez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Leon · On: Fernando Beltran · Off: Daniel Arcila
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Club America · On: Cristian Borja · Off: Franco Rossano
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Álex Zendejas · Club America
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Club America · On: Isaias Violante · Off: Álex Zendejas
82′We published Club America at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–8–92
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Leon 2–3 Club America
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, 92% now
83′Ivan Moreno scores for Leon on 82′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–93
84′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Leon 2–4 Club America
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Club America win: 47% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′84′: Oscar Andres Perea Abonce on the scoresheet for Club America, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Club America · On: Oscar Andres Perea Abonce · Off: Carlos Álvarez
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Club America · On: Alan Cervantes · Off: Israel Reyes
90′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Leon 2–5 Club America
91′Club America ahead on 90′ through Henry Martin. 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Edwin Cerrillo · Club America
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Juan Dominguez · Leon
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Henry Martin · Club America
98′Ismael Díaz scores for Leon on 90′ — 3–5. 3–5 · 0–0–100
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Leon 3–5 Club America · Ismael Díaz (assist Fernando Beltran)
FTFULL TIME Leon 0–1 Club America
FTLeon 3–5 Club America · Club America win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club America are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leon 26%, draw 27%, Club America 47%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Leon v Club AmericaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leon win26%

Draw27%

Club America win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio León

RefereeIsmael Rosario Lopez Penuelas

Line-ups

Leon

4-1-4-1

Club America

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leon

Club America

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leon

4-1-4-1

23 O. Garcia

7 I. Moreno

14 J. Romana

3 J. Guevara

26 S. Reyes

29 I. Rodriguez

18 E. Guerra

20 R. Echeverria

203 J. Lara

13 D. Arcila

27 D. Cambindo

Coach · Javier Gandolfi

Substitutes

181 · I. Martinez

5 · S. Vegas

4 · B. Colula

25 · P. Bellon

33 · A. Villegas

6 · F. Beltran Cruz

8 · J. P. Dominguez Chonteco

21 · S. Londono

11 · I. Diaz

19 · A. Alvarado

Club America

4-2-3-1

1 L. Malagon

34 D. Espinoza

14 S. Bueno

15 S. Ramos

24 F. Rossano

28 E. Sanchez

3 I. Reyes

10 A. Zendejas

8 C. Alvarez

7 B. Rodriguez

9 H. Martin

Coach · Guillermo Almada Alves Jorge

Substitutes

30 · R. Cota

26 · C. Borja

5 · K. Alvarez

32 · M. Vazquez

2 · E. Lara

6 · E. Cerrillo

13 · A. Cervantes

20 · A. H. Gutierrez Torres

12 · I. Violante

22 · O. Perea

Our number · club america winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make Club America a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leon v Club America~~1.09 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 21~~6 v 1

~~The market · Club America win~~45% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club America win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leon win	26%	29%	−3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Club America win	47%	45%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Leon or draw	53%	55%	−2
Leon clean sheet	21%	–	–
Club America clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.2 10.1 8.6 4.5 1 6.8 12.9 9.2 4.8 2 4.2 6.5 5.0 2.6 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leon down, Club America across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,801 Liga MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leon at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Club America away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Leon, 1.56 for Club America. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEO 1–0 CLU · LEO 2–3 CLU · CLU 2–0 LEO · CLU 1–1 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug

LEON

DLWDWD1–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

CLUB AMERICA

WWLDWD2–1 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	10	+11	21
2	Atlas	12	+1	21
3	Toluca	11	+10	20
4	Club Queretaro	10	+7	20
5	Guadalajara Chivas	11	+7	19
6	Leon	11	+3	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	+1	17
8	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
9	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
10	Puebla	12	−1	16
11	Monterrey	10	+2	14
12	CF Pachuca	11	+4	13
13	Tigres UANL	11	−2	13
14	Santos Laguna	11	−4	13
15	Atletico San Luis	11	−5	12
16	Atlante FC	12	−6	11
17	Necaxa	12	−10	9
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4