Home › Football › Liga MX › FC Juarez v Club Tijuana

FC Juarez v Club Tijuana

FC Juarez

1–1Full time

Club Tijuana

Liga MX · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

FC Juarez 1–1 Club Tijuana CLUB TIJUANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Club Tijuana win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.833

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.774

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Tijuana win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Club Tijuana 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–24–39
1′KICK-OFF FC Juarez v Club Tijuana
2′Little has changed for our model: Club Tijuana 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–24–39
30′We said Club Tijuana at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' FC Juarez 0–1 Club Tijuana
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Club Tijuana win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Club Tijuana win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 31' FC Juarez 0–1 Club Tijuana · Mourad El Ghezouani
31′Mourad El Ghezouani scores for Club Tijuana on 31′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Club Tijuana win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Club Tijuana win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Club Tijuana win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
34′Mourad El Ghezouani scores for Club Tijuana on 31′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
35′We said Club Tijuana at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Club Tijuana win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
45′SECOND HALF FC Juarez 0–1 Club Tijuana
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Monchu · FC Juarez
47′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Monchu · FC Juarez
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Leonardo Silva · FC Juarez
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' FC Juarez · On: Eder Lopez · Off: Ricardo Oliveira
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Juarez · On: Luca Dupuy · Off: Jesus Murillo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Club Tijuana · On: Angel Zapata · Off: Yael Padilla
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Angel Zapata · Club Tijuana
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Gilberto Sepulveda · FC Juarez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Club Tijuana · On: Diego Fernando Abreu Firenze · Off: Mourad El Ghezouani Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Club Tijuana · On: Pablo Ortíz · Off: Ramiro Árciga
70′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Francisco Nevarez · FC Juarez
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Pablo Ortíz · Club Tijuana
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Francisco Nevarez · FC Juarez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Juarez · On: Jan Carlo Carmona Nunez · Off: Francisco Nevarez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Juarez · On: Rodrigo Dourado · Off: Leonardo Silva
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jackson Porozo · Club Tijuana
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Juarez 1–1 Club Tijuana · Mourad El Ghezouani
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Juarez 1–1 Club Tijuana · Rodrigo Dourado (assist Daniel Piña)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Club Tijuana · On: Francisco González · Off: Jesús Vega
FTFULL TIME FC Juarez 1–1 Club Tijuana
FTFC Juarez 1–1 Club Tijuana · Club Tijuana win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Juarez win36%

Draw26%

Club Tijuana win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Referee · Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Juarez

4-1-3-2

1 S. Jurado

33 F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin

3 J. Murillo

2 G. Sepulveda

26 D. Pina

183 L. Rodriguez

6 Monchu

5 D. Garcia

11 J. Rodriguez

21 Ricardinho

19 O. Estupinan

Coach · Gustavo Lema

Substitutes

24 · B. Diaz

4 · A. Mayorga

14 · E. Lopez

7 · R. Fulgencio

20 · J. Aquino

13 · Rodrigo Dourado

8 · Guilherme Castilho

201 · J. Carmona

17 · L. Dupuy

9 · Madson

Club Tijuana

4-1-4-1

2 A. Rodriguez

3 R. Fernandez

12 J. Porozo

6 A. Gomez

16 A. Vega

8 I. Tona

17 R. Arciga

15 I. Rivero

31 Y. Padilla

7 A. Preciado

9 M. El Ghezouani

Coach · Sebastian Abreu

Substitutes

29 · J. Hernandez

33 · P. N. Ortiz Orozco

34 · F. Boya

20 · A. Zapata

26 · A. Perez

202 · J. Gonzalez

19 · D. Abreu

13 · Elias Manoel

11 · F. Gonzalez

188 · A. Magallon

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Juarez

4-1-3-2

1 S. Jurado

33 F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin

3 J. Murillo

2 G. Sepulveda

26 D. Pina

183 L. Rodriguez

6 Monchu

5 D. Garcia

11 J. Rodriguez

21 Ricardinho

19 O. Estupinan

Coach · Gustavo Lema

Substitutes

24 · B. Diaz

4 · A. Mayorga

14 · E. Lopez

7 · R. Fulgencio

20 · J. Aquino

13 · Rodrigo Dourado

8 · Guilherme Castilho

201 · J. Carmona

17 · L. Dupuy

9 · Madson

Club Tijuana

4-1-4-1

2 A. Rodriguez

3 R. Fernandez

12 J. Porozo

6 A. Gomez

16 A. Vega

8 I. Tona

17 R. Arciga

15 I. Rivero

31 Y. Padilla

7 A. Preciado

9 M. El Ghezouani

Coach · Sebastian Abreu

Substitutes

29 · J. Hernandez

33 · P. N. Ortiz Orozco

34 · F. Boya

20 · A. Zapata

26 · A. Perez

202 · J. Gonzalez

19 · D. Abreu

13 · Elias Manoel

11 · F. Gonzalez

188 · A. Magallon

Our number · club tijuana winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Club Tijuana a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · club tijuana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Juarez win	36%	32%	+3
Draw	26%	28%	−3
Club Tijuana win	39%	39%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	51%	+8
Both teams to score	61%	56%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	74%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	36%	30%	+6
FC Juarez or draw	61%	61%	+1
FC Juarez clean sheet	21%	–	–
Club Tijuana clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.7 6.7 5.8 3.0 1 6.3 11.7 8.4 4.4 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.3 3 2.6 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Juarez down, Club Tijuana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,789 Liga MX matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.64 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Juarez at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Club Tijuana away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for FC Juarez, 1.56 for Club Tijuana. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.64

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~7 of 11

~~Last meetings~~FCJ 1–2 CLU · CLU 3–1 FCJ · CLU 1–1 FCJ · CLU 1–2 FCJ

Form · last six in Liga MX

FC JUAREZ

LLLLWL1–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

CLUB TIJUANA

WLWLDL2–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca	10	+11	20
2	Club America	9	+11	20
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	+7	18
4	Club Queretaro	9	+5	17
5	Leon	10	+3	17
6	Atlas	10	−1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	9	+1	14
9	Puebla	10	−1	14
10	Monterrey	9	+2	13
11	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
14	Atlante FC	10	−3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	−3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	10	−18	3