FC Juarez v Atlante FC prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 04:30

FC Juarez 0–1 Atlante FC FC JUAREZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Juarez win~~40%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.667

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.468

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Juarez win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Juarez 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–34
1′KICK-OFF FC Juarez v Atlante FC
29′We said FC Juarez at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' FC Juarez 0–1 Atlante FC
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' FC Juarez win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Atlante FC win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was FC Juarez win 36%)
30′Atlante FC score on 29′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Atlante FC
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' FC Juarez win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Rodrigo Dourado · FC Juarez
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Atlante FC win 64%)
45′SECOND HALF FC Juarez 0–0 Atlante FC
51′HALF-TIME FC Juarez 0–0 Atlante FC
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' FC Juarez win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–45–26
58′We said FC Juarez at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–46–25
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Juarez · On: José Luis Rodríguez · Off: Rodrigo Dourado
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Juarez · On: Monchu · Off: Guilherme Castilho
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Jhojan Julio · Atlante FC
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlante FC · On: Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa · Off: Luis Puente
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlante FC · On: Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar · Off: Walter Portales
66′We said FC Juarez at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Juarez · On: Luca Dupuy · Off: Ricardo Oliveira
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Juarez · On: Brayan Adrián Molina Hernández · Off: Madson de Souza Silva
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' FC Juarez win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
74′We said FC Juarez at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Edgar Jiménez · Atlante FC
75′We said FC Juarez at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' FC Juarez 0–1 Atlante FC
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' FC Juarez win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Atlante FC win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 66%)
77′76′: Juan Carrera on the scoresheet for Atlante FC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–84
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Daniel Piña · FC Juarez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atlante FC · On: Walter Clar · Off: Edgar Jiménez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atlante FC · On: Daniel González · Off: Jhojan Julio
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Juarez · On: Manuel Mayorga · Off: Daniel Piña
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' FC Juarez win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Leonardo Rodríguez Silva · FC Juarez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Atlante FC · On: Maximiliano García · Off: Martín Sarrafiore
95′0–1 at the end. Our 40% on FC Juarez misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Eugenio Pizzuto · Atlante FC
FTFULL TIME FC Juarez 0–1 Atlante FC
FTFC Juarez 0–1 Atlante FC · FC Juarez win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Juarez are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Juarez 40%, draw 27%, Atlante FC 34%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FC Juarez v Atlante FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

FC Juarez win40%

Draw27%

Atlante FC win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

RefereeKatia García

Line-ups

FC Juarez

4-2-3-1

Atlante FC

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Juarez

Atlante FC

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Atlante FC	12	−6	11
18	FC Juarez	12	−23	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Juarez

4-2-3-1

1 S. Jurado

5 D. García

3 J. Murillo

2 G. Sepúlveda

26 D. Piña

183 L. Silva

13 Rodrigo Dourado

9 Madson

8 Guilherme Castilho

21 Ricardinho

19 Ó. Estupiñán

Coach · T. Campos

Substitutes

4 · A. Mayorga

23 · H. Ortega

11 · J. Rodríguez

6 · Monchu

20 · J. Aquino

201 · J. Carmona

24 · B. Díaz

14 · E. López

17 · L. Martínez Dupuy

250 · B. Molina

Atlante FC

5-3-2

1 Ó. Jiménez

29 Walter Portales

6 J. N. Carrera

4 E. Tercero

44 A. Quiroz

34 E. Jiménez

30 M. Sarrafiore

8 E. Pizzuto

19 L. Calzadilla

9 L. Puente

7 J. Julio

Coach · Miguel Herrera

Substitutes

22 · R. Barragan

18 · C. Bermúdez

15 · Jairón Andrés Charcopa Cabezas

37 · W. Clar

25 · M. Fernández

13 · M. García

16 · José González

11 · Joaquin Alejandro Moxica Chapa

3 · G. Sánchez

32 · D. Bagüí

Our number · fc juarez winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

40% The market29%

Us40%

~~Market~~29%

We make FC Juarez a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Juarez v Atlante FC~~1.51 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~18 v 16

~~The market · FC Juarez win~~29% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Juarez win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Juarez win	40%	29%	+11
Draw	27%	27%	0
Atlante FC win	34%	44%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
FC Juarez or draw	66%	56%	+10
FC Juarez clean sheet	26%	–	–
Atlante FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 6.8 6.8 5.3 2.5 1 7.5 12.5 7.9 3.6 2 6.4 8.6 5.9 2.7 3 3.2 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Juarez down, Atlante FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,807 Liga MX matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

FC Juarez at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlante FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for FC Juarez, 1.37 for Atlante FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 5 Sept

FC JUAREZ

LLWLDL0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–5

ATLANTE FC

DLDWLL1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	11	+13	24
2	Toluca	12	+10	21
3	Atlas	12	+1	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas	12	+7	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	+6	20
6	Club Queretaro	11	+2	20
7	Leon	12	+1	18
8	Monterrey	11	+3	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
10	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
12	Puebla	12	−1	16
13	Tigres UANL	12	−2	14
14	CF Pachuca	12	+3	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	−5	13
16	Atlante FC	12	−6	11
17	Necaxa	12	−10	9
18	FC Juarez	12	−23	4