Cruz Azul v FC Juarez prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 07:01

Cruz Azul 5–0 FC Juarez CRUZ AZUL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cruz Azul win~~67%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.162

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cruz Azul win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cruz Azul was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
1′KICK-OFF Cruz Azul v FC Juarez
6′We published Cruz Azul at 67%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–9–5
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Cruz Azul 1–0 FC Juarez
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Cruz Azul win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
7′4′: Andrés Montaño on the scoresheet for Cruz Azul, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–9–4
24′We published Cruz Azul at 67%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Cruz Azul 2–0 FC Juarez
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Cruz Azul win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
26′Cruz Azul ahead on 23′ through Carlos Rodriguez. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Gilberto Sepulveda · FC Juarez
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Francisco Nevarez · FC Juarez
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Cruz Azul win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′HALF-TIME Cruz Azul 3–0 FC Juarez
45′SECOND HALF Cruz Azul 3–0 FC Juarez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Juarez · On: Madson de Souza Silva · Off: Ricardo Oliveira
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Juarez · On: Guilherme Castilho · Off: Eder Lopez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cruz Azul · On: Rogelio Gonzalez · Off: Alan Mozo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cruz Azul · On: Luka Romero · Off: Carlos Rodriguez
48′Omar Campos scores for Cruz Azul on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Cruz Azul 3–0 FC Juarez · Omar Campos
49′We published Cruz Azul at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Omar Campos · Cruz Azul
55′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
55′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Madson de Souza Silva · FC Juarez
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cruz Azul 4–0 FC Juarez
56′55′: Agustín Palavecino on the scoresheet for Cruz Azul, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
56′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Guilherme Castilho · FC Juarez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cruz Azul · On: Gabriel Fernández · Off: Nicolás Ibañez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cruz Azul · On: Ariel Castro · Off: Agustín Palavecino
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Juarez · On: Luca Dupuy · Off: José Luis Rodríguez
76′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Cruz Azul 5–0 FC Juarez
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cruz Azul · On: Osinachi Ebere · Off: Andrés Montaño
77′Cruz Azul ahead on 75′ through Rogelio Gonzalez. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FC Juarez · On: Brayan Adrián Molina Hernández · Off: Oscar Estupiñan
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Juarez · On: Juan Sigala · Off: Denzell Garcia
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Gabriel Fernández · Cruz Azul
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Gilberto Sepulveda · FC Juarez
FTFULL TIME Cruz Azul 5–0 FC Juarez
FTCruz Azul 5–0 FC Juarez · Cruz Azul win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cruz Azul are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cruz Azul 67%, draw 19%, FC Juarez 13%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Cruz Azul v FC JuarezBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cruz Azul win67%

Draw19%

FC Juarez win13%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 04:10

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Banorte

RefereeSalvador Perez Villalobos

Line-ups

Cruz Azul

5-3-2

FC Juarez

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cruz Azul

FC Juarez

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cruz Azul	11	+1	17
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cruz Azul

5-3-2

1 A. Gudino

2 A. Mozo

17 A. Garcia

12 A. Montes

33 G. Piovi

3 O. Campos

8 A. Palavecino

6 E. Lira

19 C. Rodriguez

7 N. Ibanez

10 A. Montano

Coach · Joel Huiqui

Substitutes

23 · K. Mier

5 · J. Orozco

22 · J. Rodarte

16 · J. Marquez

55 · R. Gonzalez

60 · A. Castro

21 · G. Fernandez

14 · J. Calero

11 · C. Ebere

18 · L. Romero

FC Juarez

4-2-3-1

1 S. Jurado

203 L. Carmona

2 G. Sepulveda

26 D. Pina

14 E. Lopez

5 D. Garcia

183 L. Rodriguez

33 F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin

21 Ricardinho

11 J. Rodriguez

19 O. Estupinan

Coach · Gustavo Lema

Substitutes

27 · G. Ruiz

3 · J. Murillo

4 · A. Mayorga

16 · J. Sigala

13 · Rodrigo Dourado

8 · Guilherme Castilho

201 · J. Carmona

17 · L. Dupuy

9 · Madson

250 · B. Molina

Our number · cruz azul winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market73%

Us67%

~~Market~~73%

We make Cruz Azul a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cruz Azul v FC Juarez~~2.33 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 4~~7 v 18

~~The market · Cruz Azul win~~73% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cruz Azul win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cruz Azul win	67%	73%	−6
Draw	19%	17%	+2
FC Juarez win	13%	10%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Both teams to score	56%	51%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Cruz Azul or draw	87%	90%	−3
Cruz Azul clean sheet	39%	–	–
FC Juarez clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 3.0 1 8.2 9.0 3.9 2 10.2 9.5 4.5 3 7.9 7.4 3.5 4 4.6 4.3 2.0 5 2.2 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Cruz Azul down, FC Juarez across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,803 Liga MX matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cruz Azul at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Juarez away: 0.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for Cruz Azul, 0.95 for FC Juarez. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCJ 3–4 CRU · CRU 3–2 FCJ · FCJ 1–0 CRU · CRU 4–0 FCJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug

CRUZ AZUL

WWWLDD3–1 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 3–3

FC JUAREZ

LLLWLD0–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	10	+11	21
2	Atlas	12	+1	21
3	Toluca	11	+10	20
4	Club Queretaro	10	+7	20
5	Guadalajara Chivas	11	+7	19
7	Cruz Azul	11	+1	17
8	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
9	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
10	Puebla	12	−1	16
11	Monterrey	10	+2	14
12	CF Pachuca	11	+4	13
13	Tigres UANL	11	−2	13
14	Santos Laguna	11	−4	13
15	Atletico San Luis	11	−5	12
16	Atlante FC	12	−6	11
17	Necaxa	12	−10	9
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4