Club Tijuana v Santos Laguna prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club TijuanaDrawSantos Laguna

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 03:10

Before kick-off · Match result · Club Tijuana 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Tijuana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Tijuana 53%, draw 24%, Santos Laguna 23%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Club Tijuana v Santos LagunaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Club Tijuana win53%

Draw24%

Santos Laguna win23%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 03:10

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Caliente

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Tijuana

Santos Laguna

4Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club tijuana winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

53% The market47%

Us53%

~~Market~~47%

We make Club Tijuana a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Tijuana v Santos Laguna~~1.91 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 19~~11 v 9

~~The market · Club Tijuana win~~47% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Tijuana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Tijuana win	53%	47%	+6
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Santos Laguna win	23%	27%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	56%	+4
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	36%	+2
Club Tijuana or draw	77%	73%	+4
Club Tijuana clean sheet	31%	–	–
Santos Laguna clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 4.6 3.2 1 7.8 11.0 6.1 2.4 2 8.2 9.6 5.7 2.3 3 5.2 6.1 3.6 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Tijuana down, Santos Laguna across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,818 Liga MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Tijuana at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Santos Laguna away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Club Tijuana, 1.19 for Santos Laguna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CLU 1–2 SAN · SAN 1–0 CLU · SAN 0–4 CLU · CLU 3–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

CLUB TIJUANA

LDLDDD0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

SANTOS LAGUNA

WWWWWW2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5