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Club Tijuana v Puebla

Club Tijuana
0–0Full time
Puebla

Liga MX · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Caliente

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 07:02
Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla CLUB TIJUANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Club Tijuana win57%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.941
The market’s Brier score0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Club Tijuana win at 57%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Club Tijuana was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Club Tijuana v Puebla
  4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges · Puebla
  5. 32′Club Tijuana have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 49–31–20
  6. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  7. 44′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–36–19
  8. 45′Club Tijuana have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 45–36–19
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla
  11. 46′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–19
  12. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 40–43–18
  13. 56′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
  14. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Club Tijuana win 38%)
  15. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Iker Moreno · Puebla
  16. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Tijuana · On: Joban González Cera · Off: Ramiro Árciga
  17. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Tijuana · On: Unai Bilbao · Off: Jesús Vega
  18. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
  19. 63′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–16
  20. 64′Club Tijuana have had 16 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–51–16
  21. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Puebla · On: José Pachuca · Off: Iker Moreno
  22. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Puebla · On: Eduardo Mustre · Off: L. Hernández
  23. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Rafael Fernández · Club Tijuana
  24. 70′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–14
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Club Tijuana · On: Elias Manoel · Off: Mourad El Ghezouani
  26. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  27. 75′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–65–12
  28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Puebla · On: Heriberto Jurado · Off: Omar Moreno
  29. 80′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–74–9
  30. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
  31. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Joban González Cera · Club Tijuana
  32. 82′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–7
  33. 85′Club Tijuana have had 20 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–84–5
  34. 86′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Club Tijuana · On: Diego Abreu · Off: José Rivero
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Puebla · On: Eduardo Armenta · Off: Alejandro Organista
  37. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Puebla · On: Ignacio Maestro · Off: Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges
  38. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
  39. 92′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  40. FTFULL TIME Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla
  41. FTClub Tijuana 0–0 Puebla · Club Tijuana win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Tijuana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Tijuana 57%, draw 24%, Puebla 19%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Club Tijuana v PueblaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Club Tijuana win57%
Draw24%
Puebla win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 04:05

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Caliente

RefereeDaniel Quintero Huitron

Line-ups

Club Tijuana

4-1-4-1

Puebla

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Tijuana

Puebla

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Club Tijuana10+115
9Puebla11−115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Club Tijuana

4-1-4-1

2 A. Rodriguez

3 R. Fernandez

12 J. Porozo

6 A. Gomez

16 A. Vega

8 I. Tona

17 R. Arciga

11 F. Gonzalez

15 I. Rivero

7 A. Preciado

9 M. El Ghezouani

Coach · Sebastian Abreu

Substitutes

29 · J. Hernandez

4 · U. Bilbao

18 · A. Mejia

33 · P. N. Ortiz Orozco

34 · F. Boya

20 · A. Zapata

31 · Y. Padilla

202 · J. Gonzalez

19 · D. Abreu

13 · Elias Manoel

Puebla

4-2-3-1

28 D. Gutierrez

12 I. Moreno

5 F. Almada

4 J. Vargas

7 F. Monarrez

24 A. Organista

16 A. Ramirez

27 B. Garnica

10 M. Tomas

8 O. F. Moreno Villegas

9 L. Hernandez

Coach · Gerardo Espinoza

Substitutes

33 · J. Rodriguez

15 · O. Villa

20 · J. R. Pachuca Martinez

2 · A. Leyva

14 · E. Armenta

3 · A. Herrera

195 · A. de la Rosa

19 · I. Maestro

25 · H. Jurado

29 · E. Mustre

Our number · club tijuana winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
57% The market54%
Us57%
Market54%

We make Club Tijuana a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Club Tijuana v Puebla1.90 – 1.02
Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 AugW1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 15 v 158 v 9
The market · Club Tijuana win54% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 03:10
Our probability · Club Tijuana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Club Tijuana win57%54%+3
Draw24%24%0
Puebla win19%21%−2
Over 2.5 goals56%54%+2
Both teams to score55%55%0
Over 1.5 goals79%77%+2
Over 3.5 goals33%33%0
Club Tijuana or draw81%79%+2
Club Tijuana clean sheet36%––
Puebla clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 6.4 4.8 2.9 1 9.5 11.2 5.3 2 9.7 9.8 5.0 3 6.1 6.2 3.1 4 2.9 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Club Tijuana down, Puebla across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.80
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsCLU 0–0 PUE · PUE 4–3 CLU · PUE 2–0 CLU · CLU 2–1 PUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug

CLUB TIJUANA

LWLDLD2–5 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

PUEBLA

LWLDLD0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Club America10+1121
2Toluca11+1020
3Club Queretaro10+720
4Guadalajara Chivas11+719
6Atlas11−118
7Cruz Azul11+117
8Club Tijuana10+115
9Puebla11−115
10Monterrey10+214
11CF Pachuca11+413
12U.N.A.M. - Pumas11−213
13Tigres UANL11−213
14Santos Laguna11−413
15Atletico San Luis11−512
16Atlante FC11−511
17Necaxa11−89
18FC Juarez11−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.