

Club Tijuana v Puebla
Club Tijuana
PueblaLiga MX · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Caliente
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Club Tijuana win at 57%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Club Tijuana was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
- 1′KICK-OFF Club Tijuana v Puebla
- 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges · Puebla
- 32′Club Tijuana have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 49–31–20
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
- 44′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–36–19
- 45′Club Tijuana have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 45–36–19
- 45′HALF-TIME Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla
- 45′SECOND HALF Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla
- 46′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–19
- 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 40–43–18
- 56′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
- 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Club Tijuana win 38%)
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Iker Moreno · Puebla
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Tijuana · On: Joban González Cera · Off: Ramiro Árciga
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Club Tijuana · On: Unai Bilbao · Off: Jesús Vega
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
- 63′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–16
- 64′Club Tijuana have had 16 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–51–16
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Puebla · On: José Pachuca · Off: Iker Moreno
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Puebla · On: Eduardo Mustre · Off: L. Hernández
- 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Rafael Fernández · Club Tijuana
- 70′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–14
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Club Tijuana · On: Elias Manoel · Off: Mourad El Ghezouani
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
- 75′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–65–12
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Puebla · On: Heriberto Jurado · Off: Omar Moreno
- 80′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–74–9
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Joban González Cera · Club Tijuana
- 82′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–7
- 85′Club Tijuana have had 20 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–84–5
- 86′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Club Tijuana · On: Diego Abreu · Off: José Rivero
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Puebla · On: Eduardo Armenta · Off: Alejandro Organista
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Puebla · On: Ignacio Maestro · Off: Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Club Tijuana win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
- 92′We said Club Tijuana at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
- FTFULL TIME Club Tijuana 0–0 Puebla
- FTClub Tijuana 0–0 Puebla · Club Tijuana win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassClub Tijuana are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Club Tijuana 57%, draw 24%, Puebla 19%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Club Tijuana win57%
Puebla win19%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 04:05
RoundApertura · matchday 12
VenueEstadio Caliente
RefereeDaniel Quintero Huitron
Match timeline
All events
Club TijuanaMIN
PueblaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Club Tijuana
4-1-4-1
Puebla
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Club Tijuana
Puebla
Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX
Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Club Tijuana
4-1-4-1
2 A. Rodriguez
3 R. Fernandez
12 J. Porozo
6 A. Gomez
16 A. Vega
8 I. Tona
17 R. Arciga
11 F. Gonzalez
15 I. Rivero
7 A. Preciado
9 M. El Ghezouani
Coach · Sebastian Abreu
Substitutes
29 · J. Hernandez
4 · U. Bilbao
18 · A. Mejia
33 · P. N. Ortiz Orozco
34 · F. Boya
20 · A. Zapata
31 · Y. Padilla
202 · J. Gonzalez
19 · D. Abreu
13 · Elias Manoel
Puebla
4-2-3-1
28 D. Gutierrez
12 I. Moreno
5 F. Almada
4 J. Vargas
7 F. Monarrez
24 A. Organista
16 A. Ramirez
27 B. Garnica
10 M. Tomas
8 O. F. Moreno Villegas
9 L. Hernandez
Coach · Gerardo Espinoza
Substitutes
33 · J. Rodriguez
15 · O. Villa
20 · J. R. Pachuca Martinez
2 · A. Leyva
14 · E. Armenta
3 · A. Herrera
195 · A. de la Rosa
19 · I. Maestro
25 · H. Jurado
29 · E. Mustre
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Club Tijuana
4-1-4-1
2 A. Rodriguez
3 R. Fernandez
12 J. Porozo
6 A. Gomez
16 A. Vega
8 I. Tona
17 R. Arciga
11 F. Gonzalez
15 I. Rivero
7 A. Preciado
9 M. El Ghezouani
Coach · Sebastian Abreu
Substitutes
29 · J. Hernandez
4 · U. Bilbao
18 · A. Mejia
33 · P. N. Ortiz Orozco
34 · F. Boya
20 · A. Zapata
31 · Y. Padilla
202 · J. Gonzalez
19 · D. Abreu
13 · Elias Manoel
Puebla
4-2-3-1
28 D. Gutierrez
12 I. Moreno
5 F. Almada
4 J. Vargas
7 F. Monarrez
24 A. Organista
16 A. Ramirez
27 B. Garnica
10 M. Tomas
8 O. F. Moreno Villegas
9 L. Hernandez
Coach · Gerardo Espinoza
Substitutes
33 · J. Rodriguez
15 · O. Villa
20 · J. R. Pachuca Martinez
2 · A. Leyva
14 · E. Armenta
3 · A. Herrera
195 · A. de la Rosa
19 · I. Maestro
25 · H. Jurado
29 · E. Mustre
We make Club Tijuana a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana win | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Puebla win | 19% | 21% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Club Tijuana or draw | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Club Tijuana clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Puebla clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 22 Aug
CLUB TIJUANA
PUEBLA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | −1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | −1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | −2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | −2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | −5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | −5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Club America
Toluca
Club Queretaro
Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas
Cruz Azul
Monterrey
CF Pachuca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Tigres UANL
Santos Laguna
Atletico San Luis
Atlante FC
Necaxa
FC Juarez