Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club QueretaroDrawCruz Azul

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cruz Azul 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cruz Azul are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Queretaro 27%, draw 27%, Cruz Azul 45%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Club Queretaro v Cruz AzulBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Club Queretaro win27%

Draw27%

Cruz Azul win45%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio La Corregidora

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Queretaro

Cruz Azul

5Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cruz azul winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make Cruz Azul a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul~~1.12 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 23~~8 v 3

~~The market · Cruz Azul win~~48% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cruz Azul win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Queretaro win	27%	27%	0
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Cruz Azul win	45%	48%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	37%	−10
Club Queretaro or draw	55%	52%	+3
Club Queretaro clean sheet	22%	–	–
Cruz Azul clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.2 9.8 8.2 4.2 1 7.0 13.0 9.1 4.6 2 4.5 6.7 5.1 2.6 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Queretaro down, Cruz Azul across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,819 Liga MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Queretaro at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Club Queretaro, 1.52 for Cruz Azul. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CLU 1–1 CRU · CRU 2–2 CLU · CRU 1–0 CLU · CLU 0–2 CRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

CLUB QUERETARO

WDWWLL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 1–2

CRUZ AZUL

WLDDWW4–3 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5