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Club Queretaro v Atlante FC

Club Queretaro

2–0Full time

Atlante FC

Liga MX · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio La Corregidora

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Club Queretaro 2–0 Atlante FC CLUB QUERETARO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Queretaro win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.524

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.468

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Queretaro win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Club Queretaro 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Club Queretaro v Atlante FC
2′Little has changed for our model: Club Queretaro 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Eugenio Pizzuto · Atlante FC
25′25′ and it is 1–0: Santiago Homenchenko on the scoresheet for Club Queretaro. 1–0 · 71–20–10
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC · Santiago Homenchenko
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Club Queretaro win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Club Queretaro win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Club Queretaro win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Club Queretaro win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
27′25′ and it is 1–0: Santiago Homenchenko on the scoresheet for Club Queretaro. 1–0 · 71–20–9
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Club Queretaro win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
30′We said Club Queretaro at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
31′We said Club Queretaro at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Walter Clar · Atlante FC
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Club Queretaro win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Club Queretaro win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
45′SECOND HALF Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC
49′SECOND HALF Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC · Denilson Muñoz
50′SECOND HALF Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC
51′SECOND HALF Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Club Queretaro 2–0 Atlante FC · Denilson Muñoz
52′SECOND HALF Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Atlante FC · On: Edgar Jiménez · Off: Walter Clar
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Miguel Ernesto Herrera Aguirre · Atlante FC
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Club Queretaro · On: Bernardo Parra · Off: Denilson Muñoz
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atlante FC · On: Octavio Vazquez · Off: Walter Portales
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Juan Carrera · Atlante FC
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Club Queretaro · On: Waldo Madrid · Off: Mateo Coronel
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Club Queretaro · On: Waldo Madrid · Off: Mateo Coronel
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atlante FC · On: Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar · Off: Eugenio Pizzuto
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atlante FC · On: Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa · Off: Juan Carrera
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Atlante FC · On: Christian Bermudez · Off: Aarón Quirós
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Bernardo Parra · Club Queretaro
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Club Queretaro · On: Eduardo Perez · Off: Carlo Garcia Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Club Queretaro · On: Juan Martínez Jr. · Off: Carlo Garcia
FTFULL TIME Club Queretaro 2–0 Atlante FC
FTClub Queretaro 2–0 Atlante FC · Club Queretaro win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Club Queretaro win41%

Draw29%

Atlante FC win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Estadio La Corregidora

Referee · Joaquin Alberto Vizcarra Armenta

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Club Queretaro

4-2-3-1

25 G. Allison

16 E. Gimenez

13 D. Reyes

15 C. Villanueva

27 D. Parra

4 C. Garcia

5 S. Homenchenko

7 I. Benito

11 M. Coronel

17 D. Munoz

9 A. Avila

Coach · Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban

Substitutes

1 · J. Hernandez

12 · Paulo Victor

29 · W. Madrid

28 · J. Arellano

8 · B. Parra

30 · J. Martinez

241 · E. Guerrero

197 · J. Cruz

26 · E. Perez

23 · J. Robles

Atlante FC

5-3-2

1 O. Jimenez

29 W. Portales

6 J. N. Carrera

4 E. Tercero

44 A. Quiros

37 W. Clar

30 Martin Sarrafiore

8 E. Pizzuto

19 L. Calzadilla

9 L. Puente

7 Jhojan Julio

Coach · Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Substitutes

22 · R. Barragan

3 · L. Sanchez

32 · D. O. Bagui Tobar

18 · C. Bermudez

25 · M. Fernandez

10 · O. Vazquez

15 · J. Charcopa

34 · E. Jimenez

11 · J. Moxica

16 · D. Gonzalez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Club Queretaro

4-2-3-1

25 G. Allison

16 E. Gimenez

13 D. Reyes

15 C. Villanueva

27 D. Parra

4 C. Garcia

5 S. Homenchenko

7 I. Benito

11 M. Coronel

17 D. Munoz

9 A. Avila

Coach · Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban

Substitutes

1 · J. Hernandez

12 · Paulo Victor

29 · W. Madrid

28 · J. Arellano

8 · B. Parra

30 · J. Martinez

241 · E. Guerrero

197 · J. Cruz

26 · E. Perez

23 · J. Robles

Atlante FC

5-3-2

1 O. Jimenez

29 W. Portales

6 J. N. Carrera

4 E. Tercero

44 A. Quiros

37 W. Clar

30 Martin Sarrafiore

8 E. Pizzuto

19 L. Calzadilla

9 L. Puente

7 Jhojan Julio

Coach · Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Substitutes

22 · R. Barragan

3 · L. Sanchez

32 · D. O. Bagui Tobar

18 · C. Bermudez

25 · M. Fernandez

10 · O. Vazquez

15 · J. Charcopa

34 · E. Jimenez

11 · J. Moxica

16 · D. Gonzalez

Our number · club queretaro winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Club Queretaro a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · club queretaro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Queretaro win	41%	44%	−3
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Atlante FC win	30%	28%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Club Queretaro or draw	70%	72%	−2
Club Queretaro clean sheet	32%	–	–
Atlante FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.4 8.5 5.3 2.1 1 10.3 13.5 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.5 4.8 3 3.5 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Queretaro down, Atlante FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,789 Liga MX matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Club Queretaro at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlante FC away: 1.20 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Club Queretaro, 1.14 for Atlante FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga MX

CLUB QUERETARO

DLWWDW0–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

ATLANTE FC

LDDLDW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca	10	+11	20
2	Club America	9	+11	20
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	+7	18
4	Club Queretaro	9	+5	17
5	Leon	10	+3	17
6	Atlas	10	−1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	9	+1	14
9	Puebla	10	−1	14
10	Monterrey	9	+2	13
11	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
14	Atlante FC	10	−3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	−3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	10	−18	3