Club America v Monterrey prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 07:01

Club America 1–1 Monterrey CLUB AMERICA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Club America win~~54%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.915

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.870

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club America win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Club America 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–22
1′KICK-OFF Club America v Monterrey
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Cristian Borja · Club America
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Club America 0–1 Monterrey
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Club America 0–1 Monterrey · Diego Rossi
19′Monterrey ahead on 18′ through Diego Rossi. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–26–49
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Club America win: 54% at kick-off, 26% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Monterrey win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Club America win 26%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Club America win: 54% at kick-off, 52% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Club America win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Monterrey win 22%)
20′Monterrey ahead on 18′ through Diego Rossi. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–26–49
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Club America win: 54% at kick-off, 26% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Monterrey win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Club America win 26%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Club America win: 54% at kick-off, 26% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Monterrey win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Club America win 26%)
45′SECOND HALF Club America 1–1 Monterrey
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Club America 1–1 Monterrey · Diego Rossi
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Club America 1–1 Monterrey · Santiago Bueno
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Club America · On: Edwin Cerrillo · Off: Israel Reyes
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Club America · On: Miguel Borja · Off: Raphael Veiga
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Monterrey · On: Lucas Ocampos · Off: César Garza Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Monterrey · On: Erick Aguirre · Off: Óliver Torres
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' César Garza · Monterrey
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Club America · On: Carlos Álvarez · Off: Álex Zendejas
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Monterrey · On: Fidel Ambriz · Off: César Garza
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Monterrey · On: C. Reyes · Off: Jesús Corona
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Club America · On: Oscar Andres Perea Abonce · Off: Cristian Borja
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Club America · On: Kevin Alvarez · Off: Henry Martin
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Miguel Borja · Club America
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Club America
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Monterrey · On: Iker Fimbres · Off: Diego Rossi
FTFULL TIME Club America 1–1 Monterrey
FTClub America 1–1 Monterrey · Club America win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Club America win54%

Draw24%

Monterrey win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 04:10

VenueEstadio Banorte

RefereeOscar Mejia Garcia

Line-ups

Club America

4-2-3-1

Monterrey

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Club America

Monterrey

13Days since last match15

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	9	+11	20
10	Monterrey	9	+2	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Club America

4-2-3-1

1 L. Malagon

34 D. Espinoza

14 S. Bueno

15 S. Ramos

26 C. Borja

28 E. Sanchez

3 I. Reyes

10 A. Zendejas

23 Raphael Veiga

7 B. Rodriguez

9 H. Martin

Coach · Guillermo Almada Alves Jorge

Substitutes

30 · R. Cota

5 · K. Alvarez

29 · R. Juarez

6 · E. Cerrillo

8 · C. Alvarez

13 · A. Cervantes

20 · A. H. Gutierrez Torres

93 · Miguel Borja

12 · I. Violante

22 · O. Perea

Monterrey

4-1-4-1

1 E. Andrada

2 R. Chavez

4 V. Guzman

13 C. Salcedo

3 G. Arteaga

18 C. Garza

9 D. Rossi

8 O. Torres

25 O. Pineda

17 J. Corona

99 H. Cuypers

Coach · Matias Almeyda

Substitutes

22 · L. Cardenas

21 · L. Reyes

14 · E. Aguirre

19 · A. Aceves

30 · J. Rodriguez

11 · I. Fimbres

194 · C. Reyes

5 · F. Ambriz

7 · L. Ocampos

27 · R. de la Rosa

Our number · club america winPublished 11 Oct 04:11

54% The market51%

Us54%

~~Market~~51%

We make Club America a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · club america win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club America win	54%	51%	+4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Monterrey win	21%	24%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Club America or draw	79%	76%	+3
Club America clean sheet	34%	–	–
Monterrey clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 5.0 3.2 1 9.2 11.4 5.7 2.1 2 9.1 9.7 5.2 3 5.6 6.0 3.2 4 2.6 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club America down, Monterrey across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,793 Liga MX matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club America at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Monterrey away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Club America, 1.08 for Monterrey. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 14

~~Both scored~~9 of 14

~~Last meetings~~CLU 1–0 MON · CLU 2–1 MON · MON 2–0 CLU · MON 2–2 CLU

Form · last six in Liga MX

CLUB AMERICA

WWWLDW3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 4–2

MONTERREY

WLLDWL6–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	9	+11	20
2	Toluca	11	+10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	+7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	10	+7	18
5	Leon	11	+3	18
6	Atlas	10	−1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	10	+1	15
9	Puebla	11	−1	15
10	Monterrey	9	+2	13
11	Tigres UANL	11	−2	13
12	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
14	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
15	Atlante FC	11	−5	11
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4