Club America v Club Tijuana prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club AmericaDrawClub Tijuana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 03:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Club America 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club America are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club America 62%, draw 22%, Club Tijuana 16%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Club America v Club TijuanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Club America win62%

Draw22%

Club Tijuana win16%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 03:00

RoundApertura · matchday 7

VenueEstadio Banorte

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club America

Club Tijuana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club america winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Club America a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club America v Club Tijuana~~2.10 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 17~~1 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club America win	62%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Club Tijuana win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Club America or draw	84%	–	–
Club America clean sheet	38%	–	–
Club Tijuana clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.5 3.8 2.3 1 9.0 10.2 4.6 2 10.1 9.8 4.8 3 7.0 6.8 3.3 4 3.7 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club America down, Club Tijuana across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,816 Liga MX matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club America at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Club Tijuana away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Club America, 0.98 for Club Tijuana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIJ 0–0 AME · AME 3–1 TIJ · AME 1–1 TIJ · TIJ 2–2 AME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

CLUB AMERICA

LDWDWW3–4 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 5–3 · 5–2

CLUB TIJUANA

LDLDDD0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5