Club America v CF Pachuca prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club AmericaDrawCF Pachuca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Club America 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club America are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club America 57%, draw 24%, CF Pachuca 19%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Club America v CF PachucaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Club America win57%

Draw24%

CF Pachuca win19%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 01:05

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Banorte

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club America

CF Pachuca

4Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club america winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

57% The market60%

Us57%

~~Market~~60%

We make Club America a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club America v CF Pachuca~~1.85 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 13~~1 v 16

~~The market · Club America win~~60% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club America win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club America win	57%	60%	−3
Draw	24%	22%	+2
CF Pachuca win	19%	18%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	61%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	40%	−8
Club America or draw	81%	82%	−1
Club America clean sheet	38%	–	–
CF Pachuca clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.9 5.0 2.9 1 10.1 11.5 5.2 2 10.0 9.7 4.8 3 6.2 6.0 3.0 4 2.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club America down, CF Pachuca across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,819 Liga MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club America at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CF Pachuca away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Club America, 0.98 for CF Pachuca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CFP 0–0 CLU · CLU 2–0 CFP · CLU 2–0 CFP · CFP 0–0 CLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

CLUB AMERICA

LDWDWW3–4 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 5–3 · 5–2

CF PACHUCA

WDLDLL3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5