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CF Pachuca v Necaxa

CF Pachuca

3–3Full time

Necaxa

Liga MX · MON 12 OCT · Estadio Hidalgo

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa CF PACHUCA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CF Pachuca win~~55%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.925

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.926

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CF Pachuca win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CF Pachuca 55% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
17′15′ and it is 0–1: Matias Espindola on the scoresheet for Necaxa. 0–1 · 27–26–47
18′15′ and it is 0–1: Matias Espindola on the scoresheet for Necaxa. 0–1 · 27–26–48
20′We said CF Pachuca at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–26–48
23′We said CF Pachuca at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–26–49
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
26′We said CF Pachuca at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Necaxa win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was CF Pachuca win 25%)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Necaxa win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was CF Pachuca win 25%)
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Necaxa win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was CF Pachuca win 25%)
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' CF Pachuca win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Necaxa win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was CF Pachuca win 25%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' CF Pachuca 0–2 Necaxa · Matias Espindola
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' CF Pachuca 0–2 Necaxa · Julián Carranza
45′SECOND HALF CF Pachuca 1–2 Necaxa
46′⚽ GOAL · 53' CF Pachuca 1–2 Necaxa · Eduardo Dos Santos (assist Oussama Idrissi)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Miguel Rodriguez · Necaxa
51′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Necaxa · On: Juan Valencia · Off: Julián Carranza Corrected
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' CF Pachuca 1–2 Necaxa · Julián Carranza
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' CF Pachuca 1–2 Necaxa · Eduardo Dos Santos (assist Oussama Idrissi)
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Matias Espindola · Necaxa
62′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Necaxa · On: Lorenzo Faravelli · Off: Matias Espindola Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Necaxa · On: Kevin Ante · Off: Owen González Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' CF Pachuca · On: Gael Álvarez · Off: Oussama Idrissi Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' CF Pachuca · On: Alan Bautista · Off: Sebastian Santos Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Luis Jiménez · Necaxa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Necaxa · On: Raúl Martínez · Off: Miguel Rodriguez Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Necaxa · On: Javier Ruiz · Off: Emilio Martínez Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Francisco Venegas · CF Pachuca
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' CF Pachuca 1–3 Necaxa · Eduardo Dos Santos
78′⚽ GOAL · 79' CF Pachuca 1–3 Necaxa · Juan Valencia
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Javier Vallejo · CF Pachuca
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CF Pachuca · On: Mauricio Isais · Off: Francisco Venegas Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' CF Pachuca 2–3 Necaxa · Juan Valencia
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' CF Pachuca 2–3 Necaxa · Salomón Rondón
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Juan Valencia · Necaxa
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa · Salomón Rondón
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa · Salomón Rondón
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Eduardo Dos Santos · CF Pachuca
99′🟨 YELLOW · 99' Alan Bautista · CF Pachuca
FTFULL TIME CF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa
FTCF Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa · CF Pachuca win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CF Pachuca win55%

Draw24%

Necaxa win21%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:10

VenueEstadio Hidalgo

RefereeMaximiliano Quintero Hernandez

Line-ups

CF Pachuca

4-2-3-1

Necaxa

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CF Pachuca

Necaxa

14Days since last match13

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CF Pachuca

4-2-3-1

25 C. Moreno

12 S. Santos

4 Eduardo Bauermann

2 S. D. Barreto

15 F. Venegas

30 S. Rodriguez

16 C. Rivera

207 I. Zavala

7 R. Pizarro

11 O. Idrissi

23 S. Rondon

Coach · Benjamin Mora

Substitutes

31 · J. Eulogio

6 · M. Isais

13 · J. Berlanga

206 · T. A. Contreras

187 · G. Alvarez

32 · P. Budib

26 · A. Bautista

9 · A. Alcaraz

21 · N. Vallejo

211 · C. Hernandez

Necaxa

4-1-4-1

12 L. Jimenez

2 E. Martinez

3 A. Oliveros

15 D. Ochoa

88 C. Vargas

16 P. Pedraza

99 E. Rodriguez

6 D. Leyva

21 M. Espindola

13 O. Gonzalez

9 J. Carranza

Coach · Maximo Reynoso Guzman Juan

Substitutes

181 · J. Orantes

33 · R. Martinez

5 · Naves

14 · M. Zaleta

20 · F. Mendez

11 · J. P. Torres Patino

10 · J. Ruiz

8 · L. Faravelli

7 · K. Rosero

90 · J. Valencia

Our number · cf pachuca winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

55% The market55%

Us55%

~~Market~~55%

We make CF Pachuca a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CF Pachuca win	55%	55%	0
Draw	24%	24%	0
Necaxa win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−4
CF Pachuca or draw	79%	79%	0
CF Pachuca clean sheet	35%	–	–
Necaxa clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.4 4.9 3.1 1 9.2 11.4 5.6 2 9.3 9.7 5.1 3 5.8 6.0 3.2 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CF Pachuca down, Necaxa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,795 Liga MX matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.36 goals a meeting; 6 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CF Pachuca at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Necaxa away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for CF Pachuca, 1.06 for Necaxa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.36

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~CFP 2–1 NEC · NEC 0–1 CFP · NEC 3–5 CFP · CFP 6–2 NEC

Form · last six in Liga MX

CF PACHUCA

DDWWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

NECAXA

DLDLLL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	10	+11	21
2	Toluca	11	+10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	+7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	+7	19
5	Leon	11	+3	18
6	Atlas	11	−1	18
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	10	+1	15
9	Puebla	11	−1	15
10	Monterrey	10	+2	14
11	Tigres UANL	11	−2	13
12	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
14	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
15	Atlante FC	11	−5	11
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4