CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CF Pachuca win at 37%.
2. 0′KICK-OFF CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul
3. 3′Little has changed for our model: CF Pachuca 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–36
4. 12′We said CF Pachuca at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–20–64
5. 12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Eduardo Dos Santos · CF Pachuca
6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' CF Pachuca 0–1 Cruz Azul
7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' CF Pachuca win: 37% at kick-off, 16% now
8. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Cruz Azul win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was CF Pachuca win 36%)
9. 13′13′: Gabriel Fernández on the scoresheet for Cruz Azul, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–20–64
10. 20′CF Pachuca level it on 20′ through Oussama Idrissi. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–31–34
11. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' CF Pachuca 1–1 Cruz Azul
12. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' CF Pachuca win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
13. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Cruz Azul win 65%)
14. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Carlos Rodriguez · Cruz Azul
15. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Oussama Idrissi · CF Pachuca
16. 45′SECOND HALF CF Pachuca 1–1 Cruz Azul
17. 49′HALF-TIME CF Pachuca 1–1 Cruz Azul
18. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Francisco Venegas · CF Pachuca
19. 52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 29–43–28
20. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' CF Pachuca win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
21. 61′We said CF Pachuca at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–50–25
22. 63′We said CF Pachuca at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
23. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cruz Azul · On: Luka Romero · Off: Ángel Márquez
24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cruz Azul · On: Rogelio Gonzalez · Off: Omar Campos
25. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Rodolfo Pizarro · CF Pachuca
26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CF Pachuca · On: Adrián Alcaraz · Off: Rodolfo Pizarro
27. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CF Pachuca · On: Gael Álvarez · Off: Oussama Idrissi
28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cruz Azul · On: Carlos Rotondi · Off: Alan Mozo
29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cruz Azul · On: Andrés Montaño · Off: Agustín Palavecino
30. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' CF Pachuca win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
31. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Pedro Budib · CF Pachuca
32. 78′We said CF Pachuca at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
33. 78′We said CF Pachuca at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
34. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' CF Pachuca 1–2 Cruz Azul
35. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' CF Pachuca win: 37% at kick-off, 1% now
36. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Cruz Azul win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 72%)
37. 80′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–12–88
38. 80′Andrés Montaño scores for Cruz Azul on 79′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–88
39. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cruz Azul · On: Jesús Orozco · Off: Carlos Rodriguez
40. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Amaury García · Cruz Azul
41. 86′We said CF Pachuca at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–86–7
42. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' CF Pachuca 2–2 Cruz Azul
43. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Cruz Azul win 92%)
44. 87′86′: Salomón Rondón on the scoresheet for CF Pachuca, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 6–87–6
45. 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' CF Pachuca
46. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Cruz Azul win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 87%)
47. 88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 6–89–6
48. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' CF Pachuca 2–2 Cruz Azul · Salomón Rondón
49. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Cruz Azul win 94%)
50. 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' CF Pachuca
51. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Cruz Azul win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 89%)
52. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' CF Pachuca · On: Cristóbal Hernández · Off: Jorge Berlanga Corrected
53. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' CF Pachuca · On: Robert Nunes · Off: Javier Vallejo Corrected
54. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Pachuca · On: Cristóbal Hernández · Off: Jorge Berlanga
55. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Pachuca · On: Robert Nunes · Off: Javier Vallejo
56. 99′1–2 at the end. Our 37% on CF Pachuca misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
57. 99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Luka Romero · Cruz Azul
58. FTFULL TIME CF Pachuca 1–2 Cruz Azul
59. FTCF Pachuca 1–2 Cruz Azul · CF Pachuca win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.