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Atletico San Luis v Santos Laguna

Atletico San Luis

1–2Full time

Santos Laguna

Liga MX · MON 12 OCT · Estadio Libertad Financiera

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:30

Atletico San Luis 1–2 Santos Laguna ATLETICO SAN LUIS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico San Luis win~~55%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.957

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico San Luis win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico San Luis was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF Atletico San Luis v Santos Laguna
7′Much as we predicted: Atletico San Luis was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Atletico San Luis 1–0 Santos Laguna
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Atletico San Luis 1–0 Santos Laguna · Oscar Macias (assist Sebastien Salles-lamonge)
21′Oscar Macias scores for Atletico San Luis on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
22′Oscar Macias scores for Atletico San Luis on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
25′We published Atletico San Luis at 55%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–7
28′We published Atletico San Luis at 55%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Atletico San Luis 1–0 Santos Laguna · Tahiel Adrian Jimenez
34′34′ and it is 1–1: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez on the scoresheet for Santos Laguna. 1–1 · 48–30–23
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Atletico San Luis 1–1 Santos Laguna · Tahiel Adrian Jimenez
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
37′34′ and it is 1–1: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez on the scoresheet for Santos Laguna. 1–1 · 47–31–22
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Atletico San Luis win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF Atletico San Luis 1–1 Santos Laguna
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Atletico San Luis 1–1 Santos Laguna · Facundo Cáseres
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Atletico San Luis 1–2 Santos Laguna · Facundo Cáseres
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Tahiel Adrian Jimenez · Santos Laguna
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Santos Laguna · On: Emmanuel Echeverria · Off: Ramiro Sordo Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atletico San Luis · On: Lucas Esteves · Off: Felipe Mora Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico San Luis · On: Luis Ronaldo Najera Reyna · Off: David Rodriguez Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico San Luis · On: Roberto Meraz · Off: Aldo Cruz Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Santos Laguna · On: Aldo Lopez · Off: Francisco Villalba Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Santos Laguna · On: Esteban Lozano · Off: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atletico San Luis · On: Leonardo Flores · Off: Benjamín Galindo Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Santos Laguna · On: Eduardo Aguirre · Off: Ezequiel Bullaude Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Santos Laguna · On: Kevin Palacios · Off: Diego González Corrected
FTFULL TIME Atletico San Luis 1–2 Santos Laguna
FTAtletico San Luis 1–2 Santos Laguna · Atletico San Luis win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atletico San Luis win55%

Draw23%

Santos Laguna win22%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:00

VenueEstadio Libertad Financiera

RefereeFernando Hernandez Gomez

Line-ups

Atletico San Luis

3-4-2-1

Santos Laguna

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico San Luis

Santos Laguna

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico San Luis

3-4-2-1

25 M. G. Lajud

30 B. Galindo

31 E. Aguila

18 A. Cruz

2 R. Torres

21 O. Macias

10 S. Salles-Lamonge

17 A. Duarte

11 D. Rodriguez

22 R. Llorente

99 F. Mora

Coach · Raul Chabrand

Substitutes

1 · A. Sanchez

6 · Juanpe

16 · Lucas Esteves

26 · S. Perez

5 · R. Meraz

7 · B. Galdames

14 · M. Garcia

19 · S. Munoz

8 · R. Najera

20 · L. Flores

Santos Laguna

5-4-1

1 C. Acevedo

3 M. Cuevas

18 F. Pardo

25 F. Sanchez

14 E. Orona

7 D. Gonzalez

26 R. Sordo

21 F. Villalba

23 F. Caseres

10 E. Bullaude

29 T. Jimenez

Coach · Paiva Renato

Substitutes

33 · H. Holguin

4 · J. Abella

17 · E. Echeverria

28 · J. Perez

8 · S. Mariscal Murra

6 · J. Guemez

5 · A. Lopez

19 · E. Aguirre

20 · E. Lozano

77 · K. Palacios

Our number · atletico san luis winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

55% The market44%

Us55%

~~Market~~44%

We make Atletico San Luis a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atletico san luis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico San Luis win	55%	44%	+11
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Santos Laguna win	22%	30%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	57%	+4
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
Atletico San Luis or draw	78%	70%	+7
Atletico San Luis clean sheet	30%	–	–
Santos Laguna clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.0 4.2 3.0 1 7.4 10.5 5.9 2.4 2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.3 3 5.3 6.4 3.8 4 2.7 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico San Luis down, Santos Laguna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,795 Liga MX matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.09 goals a meeting; 6 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico San Luis at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Santos Laguna away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Atletico San Luis, 1.21 for Santos Laguna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 23:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.09

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–0 SAN · SAN 1–4 ATL · SAN 2–3 ATL · ATL 3–1 SAN

Form · last six in Liga MX

ATLETICO SAN LUIS

DWLLWW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 3–2

SANTOS LAGUNA

LDLWWW2–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	10	+11	21
2	Toluca	11	+10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	+7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	+7	19
5	Leon	11	+3	18
6	Atlas	11	−1	18
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	10	+1	15
9	Puebla	11	−1	15
10	Monterrey	10	+2	14
11	Tigres UANL	11	−2	13
12	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
14	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
15	Atlante FC	11	−5	11
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	11	−18	4