Atletico San Luis v Club Queretaro prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 04:30

Atletico San Luis 2–1 Club Queretaro ATLETICO SAN LUIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico San Luis win~~47%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.425

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.512

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico San Luis win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico San Luis was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Atletico San Luis v Club Queretaro
39′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Club Queretaro · On: Iker Benito Sánchez · Off: Paulo Victor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Atletico San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Atletico San Luis 0–0 Club Queretaro
45′SECOND HALF Atletico San Luis 0–0 Club Queretaro
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Atletico San Luis win 38%)
50′We said Atletico San Luis at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–42–23
52′We published Atletico San Luis at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–5
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Atletico San Luis 1–0 Club Queretaro
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Atletico San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Atletico San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 43%)
53′Felipe Mora scores for Atletico San Luis on 52′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Atletico San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–39–24 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
60′We published Atletico San Luis at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Atletico San Luis · On: Johan Caicedo · Off: Oscar Macias
68′67′: Daniel Parra puts it into the Club Queretaro net, and it is 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′We published Atletico San Luis at 47%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Atletico San Luis 2–0 Club Queretaro · Daniel Parra (own goal)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Atletico San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
69′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Club Queretaro · On: Álex Alcalá · Off: Mateo Coronel
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Club Queretaro · On: Denilson Muñoz · Off: Bayron Duarte
74′We published Atletico San Luis at 47%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Atletico San Luis 2–1 Club Queretaro
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Atletico San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 86% now
75′Club Queretaro pull one back on 74′ through Ali Ávila. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–12–1
76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 87–12–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico San Luis · On: Román Torres · Off: Benjamín Galdames
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico San Luis · On: Leonardo Flores · Off: Felipe Mora Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico San Luis · On: Sebastián Pérez Bouquet · Off: Rafael Llorente Corrected
80′We published Atletico San Luis at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Club Queretaro · On: Juan Robles · Off: Enzo Giménez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Club Queretaro · On: Waldo Madrid · Off: Bernardo Parra
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Atletico San Luis · On: Roberto Meraz · Off: David Rodriguez
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Atletico San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Atletico San Luis 2–1 Club Queretaro
FTAtletico San Luis 2–1 Club Queretaro · Atletico San Luis win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico San Luis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico San Luis 47%, draw 27%, Club Queretaro 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Atletico San Luis v Club QueretaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Atletico San Luis win47%

Draw27%

Club Queretaro win26%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Libertad Financiera

RefereeAdonai Escobedo Gonzalez

Line-ups

Atletico San Luis

3-4-2-1

Club Queretaro

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico San Luis

Club Queretaro

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Club Queretaro	11	+2	20
15	Atletico San Luis	12	−5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico San Luis

3-4-2-1

25 G. Lajud

3 Robson Bambu

31 E. Águila

18 A. Cruz

11 D. Rodríguez

21 Ó. Macías

10 S. Salles-Lamonge

17 A. Duarte

7 B. Galdames

22 Rafa Llorente

99 F. Mora

Coach · Diego Mejía

Substitutes

2 · R. Torres

20 · L. Flores

16 · Lucas Esteves

13 · J. Caicedo

30 · B. Galindo

5 · R. Meraz

19 · S. Muñóz

26 · S. Pérez Bouquet

6 · Juanpe

1 · A. Sánchez

Club Queretaro

4-2-3-1

25 G. Allison

24 B. Duarte

15 C. Villanueva

2 L. Abascia

27 D. Parra

4 Carlo Adriano

8 B. Parra

16 E. Giménez

11 M. Coronel

12 Paulo Victor

9 A. Ávila

Coach · E. González

Substitutes

20 · Álex Alcalá

28 · J. Arellano

7 · Iker Benito

30 · J. Martinez

241 · Emiliano Guerrero Ramírez

1 · J. Hernández

29 · W. Madrid

17 · D. Muñoz

26 · E. Pérez

23 · J. Robles

Our number · atletico san luis winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 02:42 · locked at kick-off

47% The market42%

Us47%

~~Market~~42%

We make Atletico San Luis a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico San Luis v Club Queretaro~~1.59 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 20~~15 v 6

~~The market · Atletico San Luis win~~42% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico San Luis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico San Luis win	47%	42%	+5
Draw	27%	27%	0
Club Queretaro win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Atletico San Luis or draw	74%	69%	+5
Atletico San Luis clean sheet	32%	–	–
Club Queretaro clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.8 6.5 4.3 1 9.5 12.7 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 4.4 4.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico San Luis down, Club Queretaro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,807 Liga MX matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico San Luis at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Club Queretaro away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Atletico San Luis, 1.13 for Club Queretaro. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 01:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–0 CLU · CLU 3–2 ATL · CLU 1–0 ATL · ATL 4–0 CLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug

ATLETICO SAN LUIS

LLWWLD0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

CLUB QUERETARO

WWDWWL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	11	+13	24
2	Toluca	12	+10	21
3	Atlas	12	+1	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas	12	+7	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	+6	20
6	Club Queretaro	11	+2	20
7	Leon	12	+1	18
8	Monterrey	11	+3	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
10	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
12	Puebla	12	−1	16
13	Tigres UANL	12	−2	14
14	CF Pachuca	12	+3	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	−5	13
16	Atlante FC	12	−6	11
17	Necaxa	12	−10	9
18	FC Juarez	12	−23	4