Atletico San Luis v Atlas prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico San LuisDrawAtlas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico San Luis 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico San Luis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico San Luis 48%, draw 25%, Atlas 27%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Atletico San Luis v AtlasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Atletico San Luis win48%

Draw25%

Atlas win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Libertad Financiera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico San Luis

Atlas

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico san luis winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Atletico San Luis a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico San Luis v Atlas~~1.73 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 21~~10 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico San Luis win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Atlas win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Atletico San Luis or draw	73%	–	–
Atletico San Luis clean sheet	29%	–	–
Atlas clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 5.5 4.0 1 7.9 11.8 6.8 2.9 2 7.6 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 4.4 5.4 3.4 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico San Luis down, Atlas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,819 Liga MX matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico San Luis at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlas away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Atletico San Luis, 1.25 for Atlas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Atlas 3–2 Atletico San Luis · Atletico San Luis 2–0 Atlas · Atlas 3–1 Atletico San Luis · Atletico San Luis 2–1 Atlas

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

ATLETICO SAN LUIS

WWLDWW3–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

ATLAS

LDWDWL2–5 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5