Atlas v Puebla prediction · Liga MX

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AtlasDrawPuebla

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlas 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlas 52%, draw 26%, Puebla 22%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atlas v PueblaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atlas win52%

Draw26%

Puebla win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Jalisco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlas

Puebla

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga MX

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
13	Puebla	13	−4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

52% The market55%

Us52%

~~Market~~55%

We make Atlas a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlas v Puebla~~1.70 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 16~~6 v 13

~~The market · Atlas win~~55% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlas win	52%	55%	−3
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Puebla win	22%	20%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Atlas or draw	78%	80%	−2
Atlas clean sheet	35%	–	–
Puebla clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 5.9 3.5 1 10.0 12.2 5.9 2.1 2 9.2 9.5 5.0 3 5.2 5.4 2.8 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlas down, Puebla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,816 Liga MX matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlas at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Puebla away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Atlas, 1.05 for Puebla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 PUE · PUE 2–3 ATL · ATL 3–2 PUE · PUE 1–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

ATLAS

LDWDWL2–5 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–5

PUEBLA

LDLDDL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	−3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	14	−6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	14	−11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	−24	5