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Atlas v Guadalajara Chivas

Atlas

1–1Full time

Guadalajara Chivas

Liga MX · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Jalisco

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:35

Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas GUADALAJARA CHIVAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Guadalajara Chivas win~~42%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guadalajara Chivas win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Guadalajara Chivas was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–26–43
1′KICK-OFF Atlas v Guadalajara Chivas
2′Much as we predicted: Guadalajara Chivas was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–26–43
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Juan Sánchez · Atlas
29′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Richard Ledezma · Guadalajara Chivas
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Daniel Aguirre · Guadalajara Chivas
45′SECOND HALF Atlas 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Carlos Hernandez · Off: Diego Campillo Corrected
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Atlas 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Atlas 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas · Kevin Zenon (assist Paulo Ramirez)
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Florián Monzón · Atlas
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlas · On: Edgar Zaldívar · Off: Paulo Ramirez Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Kevin Castañeda · Off: Leonel Calderón Oviedo Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Hugo Camberos · Off: Ricardo Marín Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Santiago Sandoval · Off: Richard Ledezma Corrected
75′PENALTY MISSED · 76' Ángel Sepúlveda · Guadalajara Chivas
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atlas · On: Aldo Rocha · Off: Elías Montiel Corrected
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Kevin Castañeda · Guadalajara Chivas
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas · Kevin Zenon
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas · Ángel Sepúlveda
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atlas · On: Sergio Hernández · Off: Ryan Mmaee Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Santiago Sandoval · Guadalajara Chivas
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Guadalajara Chivas · On: Efrain Alvarez · Off: Roberto Alvarado Corrected
98′🟥 RED CARD · 98' Kevin Castañeda · Guadalajara Chivas
FTFULL TIME Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas
FTAtlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas · Guadalajara Chivas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atlas win30%

Draw28%

Guadalajara Chivas win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:00

Venue · Estadio Jalisco

Referee · Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Atlas

4-4-2

12 C. Vargas

3 J. Sanchez

19 A. Frias

44 J. Sanchez

16 M. Valenzuela

20 K. Zenon

18 E. Montiel

15 P. Ramirez

10 L. Esteves

9 F. Monzon

8 R. Mmaee

Coach · Hernan Crespo

Substitutes

22 · A. Sanchez

28 · M. Capasso

5 · J. Rodriguez

13 · G. Aguirre

26 · A. Rocha

6 · E. Zaldivar

27 · V. H. Rios De Alba

23 · S. Hernandez

203 · J. Martin

58 · A. Gonzalez

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1

1 R. Rangel

23 D. Aguirre

16 L. Rey

3 D. Campillo Del Campo

37 R. Ledezma

28 F. Gonzalez

11 B. Gutierrez

182 L. Calderon

25 R. Alvarado

17 R. Marin

9 A. Sepulveda

Coach · Gabriel Milito

Substitutes

13 · O. Whalley

2 · J. Castillo

46 · C. Hernandez

19 · K. Castaneda

59 · S. Inda

10 · E. Alvarez

30 · S. Sandoval

33 · J. Carrillo

57 · J. Hernandez

14 · H. Camberos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atlas

4-4-2

12 C. Vargas

3 J. Sanchez

19 A. Frias

44 J. Sanchez

16 M. Valenzuela

20 K. Zenon

18 E. Montiel

15 P. Ramirez

10 L. Esteves

9 F. Monzon

8 R. Mmaee

Coach · Hernan Crespo

Substitutes

22 · A. Sanchez

28 · M. Capasso

5 · J. Rodriguez

13 · G. Aguirre

26 · A. Rocha

6 · E. Zaldivar

27 · V. H. Rios De Alba

23 · S. Hernandez

203 · J. Martin

58 · A. Gonzalez

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1

1 R. Rangel

23 D. Aguirre

16 L. Rey

3 D. Campillo Del Campo

37 R. Ledezma

28 F. Gonzalez

11 B. Gutierrez

182 L. Calderon

25 R. Alvarado

17 R. Marin

9 A. Sepulveda

Coach · Gabriel Milito

Substitutes

13 · O. Whalley

2 · J. Castillo

46 · C. Hernandez

19 · K. Castaneda

59 · S. Inda

10 · E. Alvarez

30 · S. Sandoval

33 · J. Carrillo

57 · J. Hernandez

14 · H. Camberos

Our number · guadalajara chivas winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Guadalajara Chivas a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guadalajara chivas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlas win	30%	27%	+3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Guadalajara Chivas win	42%	46%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
Atlas or draw	58%	54%	+4
Atlas clean sheet	24%	–	–
Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.5 9.8 7.7 3.7 1 7.8 13.1 8.8 4.2 2 5.0 7.1 5.1 2.5 3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlas down, Guadalajara Chivas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,789 Liga MX matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlas at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Guadalajara Chivas away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Atlas, 1.44 for Guadalajara Chivas. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 15

~~Both scored~~11 of 15

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–2 GUA · GUA 4–1 ATL · ATL 1–1 GUA · GUA 1–2 ATL

Form · last six in Liga MX

ATLAS

WLDLDW2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 3–2

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS

WDWWDL5–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca	10	+11	20
2	Club America	9	+11	20
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	+7	18
4	Club Queretaro	9	+5	17
5	Leon	10	+3	17
6	Atlas	10	−1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	9	+1	14
9	Puebla	10	−1	14
10	Monterrey	9	+2	13
11	CF Pachuca	10	+4	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	−2	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	−4	12
14	Atlante FC	10	−3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	−3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	−5	10
17	Necaxa	10	−8	8
18	FC Juarez	10	−18	3