Atlas v Club America prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 04:30

Atlas 2–5 Club America CLUB AMERICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club America win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club America win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Club America was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 26–27–48
1′KICK-OFF Atlas v Club America
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Club America
25′We published Club America at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Atlas 0–1 Club America
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Club America win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
26′26′: Miguel Borja on the scoresheet for Club America, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–17–75
27′We published Club America at 48%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Atlas 0–2 Club America
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Club America win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
28′7 shots for Atlas, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
30′Club America ahead on 28′ through Erick Sánchez. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
35′Atlas have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′SECOND HALF Atlas 0–2 Club America
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Club America · On: Isaias Violante · Off: Carlos Álvarez
47′HALF-TIME Atlas 0–2 Club America
48′We published Club America at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
53′13 shots for Atlas, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
54′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–96
58′We published Club America at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Atlas 0–3 Club America
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Club America win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
59′Brian Rodríguez scores for Club America on 58′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
63′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Atlas 0–4 Club America
64′63′: Álex Zendejas on the scoresheet for Club America, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Club America · On: Henry Martin · Off: Miguel Borja
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atlas · On: Sergio Hernández · Off: Paulo Ramirez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Club America · On: Oscar Andres Perea Abonce · Off: Álex Zendejas
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atlas · On: Edgar Zaldívar · Off: Arturo González
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atlas · On: José Martín · Off: Florián Monzón
71′Atlas have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
72′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
72′PENALTY · 70' Atlas
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Atlas 1–4 Club America
74′Atlas pull one back on 73′ through Luís André Leite Esteves. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
78′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–1–99
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Club America · On: Emilio Lara · Off: Franco Rossano
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Atlas 2–4 Club America
79′Ryan Mmaee scores for Atlas on 78′. 2–5 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Atlas 2–5 Club America
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Club America · On: Alan Cervantes · Off: Israel Reyes
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atlas · On: Jorge Rodríguez · Off: Milton Valenzuela
80′79′: Kevin Alvarez on the scoresheet for Club America, making it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
81′21 shots for Atlas, 10 the other way, and they still trail 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
81′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Juan Sánchez · Atlas
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Atlas · On: Víctor Ríos · Off: Elías Montiel
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Sergio Hernández · Atlas
FTFULL TIME Atlas 2–5 Club America
FTAtlas 2–5 Club America · Club America win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club America are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlas 26%, draw 27%, Club America 48%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atlas v Club AmericaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Atlas win26%

Draw27%

Club America win48%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Jalisco

Line-ups

Atlas

4-2-2-2

Club America

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlas

Club America

5Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlas

4-2-2-2

12 C. Vargas

3 J. Sánchez

19 A. Frías

44 J. Purata

16 M. Valenzuela

18 E. Montiel

15 Paulo Ramírez

58 A. González

10 Luís Esteves

9 F. Monzón

8 R. Mmaee

Coach · H. Crespo

Substitutes

6 · É. Zaldívar

27 · V. Ríos

22 · A. Sánchez

23 · S. Hernández

28 · M. Capasso

13 · G. Aguirre

17 · J. Lozano

203 · J. Martín

26 · A. Rocha

5 · J. Rodríguez

Club America

4-2-3-1

1 L. Malagón

5 K. Álvarez

14 S. Bueno

15 S. Ramos

24 F. Rossano

3 I. Reyes

28 É. Sánchez

10 A. Zendejas

8 Carlos Álvarez

7 B. Rodríguez

93 M. Borja

Coach · G. Almada

Substitutes

13 · A. Cervantes

30 · R. Cota

20 · A. Gutiérrez

2 · E. Lara

9 · H. Martín

22 · Ó. Perea

12 · I. Violante

32 · M. Vázquez

217 · Icaro

6 · E. Cerrillo

Our number · club america winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Club America a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlas v Club America~~1.12 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 24~~5 v 1

~~The market · Club America win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club America win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlas win	26%	28%	−2
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Club America win	48%	46%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Atlas or draw	52%	54%	−2
Atlas clean sheet	20%	–	–
Club America clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.6 9.6 8.5 4.6 1 6.4 12.6 9.3 5.0 2.1 2 4.1 6.5 5.2 2.8 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlas down, Club America across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,811 Liga MX matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlas at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Club America away: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Atlas, 1.62 for Club America. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CLU 0–1 ATL · ATL 2–4 CLU · ATL 1–3 CLU · CLU 3–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 30 Aug

ATLAS

DLDWDW1–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

CLUB AMERICA

WLDWDW2–0 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 5–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	11	+13	24
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Toluca	12	+10	21
4	Leon	13	+3	21
5	Atlas	12	+1	21
6	Cruz Azul	12	+6	20
7	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
8	Monterrey	11	+3	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	+1	16
10	Club Tijuana	11	+1	16
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	12	−1	16
12	Puebla	12	−1	16
13	Atletico San Luis	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	13	−5	14
16	CF Pachuca	12	+3	13
17	Necaxa	13	−11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	−24	4