

Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Atlante FC
U.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Azul
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlante FC win at 37%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Atlante FC 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Miguel Ernesto Herrera Aguirre · Atlante FC
- 39′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Miguel Ernesto Herrera Aguirre · Atlante FC
- 40′Atlante FC are down to ten from 34′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 32–36–32
- 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Atlante FC win 32%)
- 42′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–68
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Atlante FC 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 10% now
- 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 22%)
- 43′U.N.A.M. - Pumas ahead on 42′ through Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–69
- 44′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
- 45′8 shots for Atlante FC, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 31–39–30
- 45′HALF-TIME Atlante FC 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 31% now
- 46′SECOND HALF Atlante FC 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 47′Luis Calzadilla scores for Atlante FC on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–40–30
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Atlante FC 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 30% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was U.N.A.M. - Pumas win 30%)
- 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Aarón Quirós · Atlante FC
- 52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 29–43–28
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
- 61′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–49–25
- 61′12 shots for Atlante FC, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 25–49–25
- 64′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Victor Arteaga · Off: Alan Medina
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Pablo Bennevendo · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 72′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–17–81
- 72′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–17–81
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atlante FC · On: Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar · Off: Edgar Jiménez
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Atlante FC 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
- 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
- 74′72′: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior on the scoresheet for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atlante FC · On: Christian Bermudez · Off: Aarón Quirós
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Álvaro Angulo · Off: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atlante FC · On: Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa · Off: Eugenio Pizzuto
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atlante FC · On: Jairon Charcopa · Off: Eduardo Tercero
- 89′16 shots for Atlante FC, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Walter Portales · Atlante FC
- 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Santiago Lopez · Off: Carlos Antuna
- FTFULL TIME Atlante FC 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- FTAtlante FC 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Atlante FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassClose to call, with Atlante FC just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Atlante FC 37%, draw 27%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 36%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Atlante FC win37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win36%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 04:00
RoundApertura · matchday 12
VenueEstadio Azul
RefereeLuis Enrique Santander Aguirre
Match timeline
All events
Atlante FCMIN
U.N.A.M. - PumasEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Atlante FC
5-3-2
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Atlante FC
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX
Last match: 12 Oct · Liga MX
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Atlante FC
5-3-2
1 O. Jimenez
29 W. Portales
6 J. N. Carrera
4 E. Tercero
44 A. Quiros
34 E. Jimenez
30 Martin Sarrafiore
8 E. Pizzuto
19 L. Calzadilla
9 L. Puente
7 Jhojan Julio
Coach · Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel
Substitutes
22 · R. Barragan
3 · L. Sanchez
32 · D. O. Bagui Tobar
18 · C. Bermudez
37 · W. Clar
25 · M. Fernandez
10 · O. Vazquez
15 · J. Charcopa
11 · J. Moxica
16 · D. Gonzalez
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4-4-2
1 K. Navas
7 R. Lopez
6 Nathan Silva
5 R. Duarte
2 P. Bennevendo
22 A. Medina
8 A. Carrasquilla
45 P. Vite
21 U. Antuna
31 R. Morales
23 Juninho
Coach · Esteban Solari
Substitutes
35 · P. Lara
19 · J. Rivas
24 · T. Leone
34 · A. Azuaje
77 · A. Angulo
202 · J. Dominguez
18 · V. Arteaga
15 · I. Luna
14 · L. Herrera
30 · S. Lopez
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Atlante FC
5-3-2
1 O. Jimenez
29 W. Portales
6 J. N. Carrera
4 E. Tercero
44 A. Quiros
34 E. Jimenez
30 Martin Sarrafiore
8 E. Pizzuto
19 L. Calzadilla
9 L. Puente
7 Jhojan Julio
Coach · Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel
Substitutes
22 · R. Barragan
3 · L. Sanchez
32 · D. O. Bagui Tobar
18 · C. Bermudez
37 · W. Clar
25 · M. Fernandez
10 · O. Vazquez
15 · J. Charcopa
11 · J. Moxica
16 · D. Gonzalez
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4-4-2
1 K. Navas
7 R. Lopez
6 Nathan Silva
5 R. Duarte
2 P. Bennevendo
22 A. Medina
8 A. Carrasquilla
45 P. Vite
21 U. Antuna
31 R. Morales
23 Juninho
Coach · Esteban Solari
Substitutes
35 · P. Lara
19 · J. Rivas
24 · T. Leone
34 · A. Azuaje
77 · A. Angulo
202 · J. Dominguez
18 · V. Arteaga
15 · I. Luna
14 · L. Herrera
30 · S. Lopez
We make Atlante FC a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC win | 37% | 35% | +2 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas win | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 32% | −1 |
| Atlante FC or draw | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Atlante FC clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug
ATLANTE FC
U.N.A.M. - PUMAS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | −1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | −1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | −2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | −2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | −5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | −5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Club America
Toluca
Club Queretaro
Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas
Cruz Azul
Club Tijuana
Puebla
Monterrey
CF Pachuca
Tigres UANL
Santos Laguna
Atletico San Luis
Necaxa
FC Juarez