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Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Atlante FC
1–2Full time
U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Liga MX · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Azul

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 06:30
Atlante FC 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas ATLANTE FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Atlante FC win37%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.616
The market’s Brier score0.587

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlante FC win at 37%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Atlante FC 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
  4. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Miguel Ernesto Herrera Aguirre · Atlante FC
  5. 39′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Miguel Ernesto Herrera Aguirre · Atlante FC
  6. 40′Atlante FC are down to ten from 34′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 32–36–32
  7. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Atlante FC win 32%)
  8. 42′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–68
  9. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Atlante FC 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  10. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 10% now
  11. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 22%)
  12. 43′U.N.A.M. - Pumas ahead on 42′ through Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–69
  13. 44′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
  14. 45′8 shots for Atlante FC, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 31–39–30
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Atlante FC 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  16. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 31% now
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Atlante FC 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  18. 47′Luis Calzadilla scores for Atlante FC on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–40–30
  19. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Atlante FC 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  20. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 30% now
  21. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was U.N.A.M. - Pumas win 30%)
  22. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Aarón Quirós · Atlante FC
  23. 52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 29–43–28
  24. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  25. 61′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–49–25
  26. 61′12 shots for Atlante FC, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 25–49–25
  27. 64′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
  28. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Victor Arteaga · Off: Alan Medina
  29. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Pablo Bennevendo · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  30. 72′We said Atlante FC at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–17–81
  31. 72′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–17–81
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atlante FC · On: Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar · Off: Edgar Jiménez
  33. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Atlante FC 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  34. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Atlante FC win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
  35. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' U.N.A.M. - Pumas win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
  36. 74′72′: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior on the scoresheet for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
  37. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atlante FC · On: Christian Bermudez · Off: Aarón Quirós
  38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Álvaro Angulo · Off: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior
  39. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atlante FC · On: Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa · Off: Eugenio Pizzuto
  40. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atlante FC · On: Jairon Charcopa · Off: Eduardo Tercero
  41. 89′16 shots for Atlante FC, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  42. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Walter Portales · Atlante FC
  43. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' U.N.A.M. - Pumas · On: Santiago Lopez · Off: Carlos Antuna
  44. FTFULL TIME Atlante FC 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  45. FTAtlante FC 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Atlante FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atlante FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlante FC 37%, draw 27%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 36%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - PumasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlante FC win37%
Draw27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 04:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Azul

RefereeLuis Enrique Santander Aguirre

Line-ups

Atlante FC

5-3-2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlante FC

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

7Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga MX

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12U.N.A.M. - Pumas11−213
16Atlante FC11−511

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlante FC

5-3-2

1 O. Jimenez

29 W. Portales

6 J. N. Carrera

4 E. Tercero

44 A. Quiros

34 E. Jimenez

30 Martin Sarrafiore

8 E. Pizzuto

19 L. Calzadilla

9 L. Puente

7 Jhojan Julio

Coach · Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Substitutes

22 · R. Barragan

3 · L. Sanchez

32 · D. O. Bagui Tobar

18 · C. Bermudez

37 · W. Clar

25 · M. Fernandez

10 · O. Vazquez

15 · J. Charcopa

11 · J. Moxica

16 · D. Gonzalez

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

4-4-2

1 K. Navas

7 R. Lopez

6 Nathan Silva

5 R. Duarte

2 P. Bennevendo

22 A. Medina

8 A. Carrasquilla

45 P. Vite

21 U. Antuna

31 R. Morales

23 Juninho

Coach · Esteban Solari

Substitutes

35 · P. Lara

19 · J. Rivas

24 · T. Leone

34 · A. Azuaje

77 · A. Angulo

202 · J. Dominguez

18 · V. Arteaga

15 · I. Luna

14 · L. Herrera

30 · S. Lopez

Our number · atlante fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market35%
Us37%
Market35%

We make Atlante FC a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.41 – 1.40
Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 AugW1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 11 v 1316 v 12
The market · Atlante FC win35% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 03:10
Our probability · Atlante FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atlante FC win37%35%+2
Draw27%27%0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win36%38%−2
Over 2.5 goals53%53%0
Both teams to score57%58%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%76%+2
Over 3.5 goals31%32%−1
Atlante FC or draw64%62%+2
Atlante FC clean sheet25%––
U.N.A.M. - Pumas clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 7.2 7.5 5.9 2.8 1 7.6 12.7 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.2 5.7 2.7 3 2.9 3.9 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atlante FC down, U.N.A.M. - Pumas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 29 Aug

ATLANTE FC

DDLDWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–2

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS

LWLDLD0–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Club America10+1121
2Toluca11+1020
3Club Queretaro10+720
4Guadalajara Chivas11+719
6Atlas11−118
7Cruz Azul11+117
8Club Tijuana10+115
9Puebla11−115
10Monterrey10+214
11CF Pachuca11+413
12U.N.A.M. - Pumas11−213
13Tigres UANL11−213
14Santos Laguna11−413
15Atletico San Luis11−512
16Atlante FC11−511
17Necaxa11−89
18FC Juarez11−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.