Atlante FC v Atletico San Luis prediction · Liga MX

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 06:31

Atlante FC 0–1 Atletico San Luis ATLANTE FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlante FC win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.741

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlante FC win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atlante FC was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Atlante FC v Atletico San Luis
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Aarón Quirós · Atlante FC
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Robson Bambu · Atletico San Luis
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Eugenio Pizzuto · Atlante FC
45′SECOND HALF Atlante FC 0–0 Atletico San Luis
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45+1' Atlante FC · On: Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar · Off: Eduardo Tercero
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Atlante FC win 36%)
49′Atlante FC have had 10 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 35–38–27
49′HALF-TIME Atlante FC 0–0 Atletico San Luis
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Atlante FC win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–44–24
56′We said Atlante FC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–45–24
59′We said Atlante FC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–70
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Atletico San Luis · On: Benjamín Galdames · Off: Anderson Duarte
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Atlante FC 0–1 Atletico San Luis
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Atlante FC win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Atletico San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 47%)
61′59′: Benjamín Galdames on the scoresheet for Atletico San Luis, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
68′We said Atlante FC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
69′Atlante FC have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 4–20–76
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atlante FC · On: Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa · Off: Luis Puente
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atlante FC · On: Walter Clar · Off: Edgar Jiménez
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Atlante FC win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico San Luis · On: Johan Caicedo · Off: Sebastien Salles-lamonge
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico San Luis · On: Luis Ronaldo Najera Reyna · Off: Felipe Mora Corrected
80′Atlante FC have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 1–13–86
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atlante FC · On: Martín Fernández · Off: Eugenio Pizzuto
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atlante FC · On: Daniel González · Off: Aarón Quirós
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atletico San Luis · On: Roberto Meraz · Off: Rafael Llorente
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atletico San Luis · On: Juanpe · Off: David Rodriguez
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Juan Carrera · Atlante FC
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Atlante FC 1–1 Atletico San Luis
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Atletico San Luis win 98%)
95′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+5' Atlante FC
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Atletico San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
96′PENALTY MISSED · 90+4' Walter Clar · Atlante FC
98′21 shots for Atlante FC, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Martín Fernández · Atlante FC
100′Full time, 0–1. We called Atlante FC at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Atlante FC 0–1 Atletico San Luis
FTAtlante FC 0–1 Atletico San Luis · Atlante FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlante FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlante FC 43%, draw 26%, Atletico San Luis 30%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Atlante FC v Atletico San LuisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atlante FC win43%

Draw26%

Atletico San Luis win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 04:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Banorte

Line-ups

Atlante FC

5-3-2

Atletico San Luis

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlante FC

Atletico San Luis

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Atletico San Luis	13	−4	16
15	Atlante FC	13	−5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlante FC

5-3-2

1 Ó. Jiménez

29 Walter Portales

6 J. N. Carrera

4 E. Tercero

44 A. Quiroz

34 E. Jiménez

30 M. Sarrafiore

8 E. Pizzuto

19 L. Calzadilla

9 L. Puente

7 J. Julio

Coach · Miguel Herrera

Substitutes

3 · G. Sánchez

16 · José González

37 · W. Clar

13 · M. García

25 · M. Fernández

32 · D. Bagüí

22 · R. Barragan

11 · Joaquin Alejandro Moxica Chapa

18 · C. Bermúdez

15 · Jairón Andrés Charcopa Cabezas

Atletico San Luis

3-4-3

25 G. Lajud

3 Robson Bambu

31 E. Águila

18 A. Cruz

2 R. Torres

21 Ó. Macías

10 S. Salles-Lamonge

17 A. Duarte

11 D. Rodríguez

99 F. Mora

22 Rafa Llorente

Coach · Diego Mejía

Substitutes

13 · J. Caicedo

16 · Lucas Esteves

7 · B. Galdames

30 · B. Galindo

5 · R. Meraz

19 · S. Muñóz

8 · L. Nájera

26 · S. Pérez Bouquet

6 · Juanpe

1 · A. Sánchez

Our number · atlante fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 01:13 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Atlante FC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlante FC v Atletico San Luis~~1.58 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~15 v 12

~~The market · Atlante FC win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlante FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlante FC win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Atletico San Luis win	30%	30%	0
Over 2.5 goals	55%	52%	+3
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	75%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Atlante FC or draw	70%	70%	0
Atlante FC clean sheet	28%	–	–
Atletico San Luis clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.7 6.4 4.7 2.1 1 8.0 12.3 7.3 3.2 2 7.1 9.0 5.8 2.5 3 3.8 4.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlante FC down, Atletico San Luis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,816 Liga MX matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Atlante FC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico San Luis away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Atlante FC, 1.29 for Atletico San Luis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX this season · since 12 Sept

ATLANTE FC

LDWLLW0–3 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

ATLETICO SAN LUIS

LWWLDW0–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club America	12	+16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	+8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	+7	23
4	Toluca	13	+10	22
5	Leon	13	+3	21
6	Atlas	13	−2	21
7	Monterrey	12	+6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	+1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	+3	19
10	Club Tijuana	12	+1	17
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	−3	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	−4	16
13	Puebla	13	−4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	−4	14
15	Atlante FC	13	−5	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	+2	13
17	Necaxa	13	−11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	−24	4