Home › Football › A Lyga › TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen

TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen

TransINVEST Vilnius

2–0Full time

Hegelmann Litauen

A Lyga · SAT 24 OCT · FK TransINVEST stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

TransINVEST Vilnius 2–0 Hegelmann Litauen TRANSINVEST VILNIUS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TransINVEST Vilnius win~~53%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.327

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said TransINVEST Vilnius win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: TransINVEST Vilnius 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
1′KICK-OFF TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen
3′We said TransINVEST Vilnius at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–10
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' TransINVEST Vilnius 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
4′A goal for TransINVEST Vilnius on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–10
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
45′SECOND HALF TransINVEST Vilnius 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen
46′HALF-TIME TransINVEST Vilnius 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Hegelmann Litauen
56′We said TransINVEST Vilnius at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
72′We said TransINVEST Vilnius at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Hegelmann Litauen · On: D. Pasilys · Off: E. Kausinis
75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Hegelmann Litauen · On: M. Remeikis · Off: S. Oum Gouet
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' TransINVEST Vilnius · On: N. Akosah-Bempah · Off: Y. Glushach
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' TransINVEST Vilnius · On: C. Nwoga · Off: S. Milosevic
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Hegelmann Litauen · On: A. Puerto · Off: D. Slendzoka
80′We said TransINVEST Vilnius at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hegelmann Litauen · On: D. Sinkevicius · Off: Wesley
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hegelmann Litauen · On: A. Harouna · Off: V. Armanavicius
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' TransINVEST Vilnius · On: D. Bosnjak · Off: D. Sluta
87′We said TransINVEST Vilnius at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′We said TransINVEST Vilnius at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' TransINVEST Vilnius 2–0 Hegelmann Litauen
92′TransINVEST Vilnius score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′2–0 at the end. Our 53% on TransINVEST Vilnius comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME TransINVEST Vilnius 2–0 Hegelmann Litauen
FTTransINVEST Vilnius 2–0 Hegelmann Litauen · TransINVEST Vilnius win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TransINVEST Vilnius are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TransINVEST Vilnius 53%, draw 24%, Hegelmann Litauen 23%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann LitauenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

TransINVEST Vilnius win53%

Draw24%

Hegelmann Litauen win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueFK TransINVEST stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TransINVEST Vilnius

Hegelmann Litauen

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · A Lyga

Last match: 18 Oct · A Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	29	+8	46
8	Hegelmann Litauen	30	−20	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · transinvest vilnius winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

53% The market65%

Us53%

~~Market~~65%

We make TransINVEST Vilnius a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TransINVEST Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen~~1.95 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 46 v 26~~4 v 8

~~The market · TransINVEST Vilnius win~~65% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · TransINVEST Vilnius win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TransINVEST Vilnius win	53%	65%	−12
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Hegelmann Litauen win	23%	14%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	60%	53%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
TransINVEST Vilnius or draw	77%	86%	−9
TransINVEST Vilnius clean sheet	31%	–	–
Hegelmann Litauen clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.5 4.7 3.3 1 7.7 10.7 6.0 2.4 2 8.0 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 5.1 6.0 3.6 4 2.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TransINVEST Vilnius down, Hegelmann Litauen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,054 A Lyga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

TransINVEST Vilnius at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hegelmann Litauen away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for TransINVEST Vilnius, 1.20 for Hegelmann Litauen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HEG 1–2 TRA · TRA 2–1 HEG · TRA 2–0 HEG · HEG 3–1 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 16 Aug

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS

DWLWWD1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 3–3

HEGELMANN LITAUEN

DDLDDL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	29	+37	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	29	+8	46
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	30	−20	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0