Suduva Marijampole v Kauno Žalgiris prediction · A Lyga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:27

Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris KAUNO ŽALGIRIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kauno Žalgiris win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.472

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kauno Žalgiris win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kauno Žalgiris 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 27–29–44
1′KICK-OFF Suduva Marijampole v Kauno Žalgiris
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Suduva Marijampole
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kauno Žalgiris win 38%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kauno Žalgiris win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Kauno Žalgiris
46′SECOND HALF Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Kauno Žalgiris
51′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 22–46–32
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Kauno Žalgiris
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Suduva Marijampole
57′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–50–29
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kauno Žalgiris · On: F. Ourega · Off: M. Burba
66′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–59–24
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Kauno Žalgiris win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
73′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 14–67–19
79′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Kauno Žalgiris win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
83′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
90′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Kauno Žalgiris win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
94′Kauno Žalgiris find the net on 90′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Kauno Žalgiris
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Kauno Žalgiris win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Kauno Žalgiris win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
95′We said Kauno Žalgiris at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–1 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris
FTSuduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris · Kauno Žalgiris win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suduva Marijampole 27%, draw 29%, Kauno Žalgiris 44%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Suduva Marijampole v Kauno ŽalgirisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Suduva Marijampole win27%

Draw29%

Kauno Žalgiris win44%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 33

VenueMarijampole Football Arena

Line-ups

Suduva Marijampole

Kauno Žalgiris

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suduva Marijampole

Kauno Žalgiris

9Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · A Lyga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Suduva Marijampole

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Zenkevicius

75 E. Stockunas

8 S. Lawson

5 Z. Baltrunas

18 T. Milasius

7 I. Seck

19 F. Tangiri

6 A. Sabo

11 M. Chajia

94 S. M. Sanokho

14 F. Steponavicius

Coach · Donatas Vencevicius

Substitutes

66 · R. Pacesa

4 · H. Uzochukwu

9 · T. Lucky

10 · O. Haydary

13 · M. Mikulenas

15 · A. Zivanovic

16 · Y. Tsykalo

20 · Y. Omori

21 · E. Agbor

26 · D. Antanavicius

46 · I. Skamarakas

80 · Y. Yefremov

Kauno Žalgiris

Formation not confirmed

55 T. Svedkauskas

62 L. I. Kastrati

77 R. Lekiatas

23 A. Hernandez

33 M. Konatar

8 Y. Karashima

24 M. Burba

20 A. Kalik

14 V. Slivka

9 L. Krekovic

27 G. Debeljuh

Coach · Eivinas Cerniauskas

Substitutes

22 · D. Mikelionis

3 · A. Tolordava

4 · L. Racic

32 · F. Baldassarra

10 · G. Sirgedas

11 · F. Cernych

15 · Leo Ribeiro

17 · I. Fiolic

19 · Renan Oliveira

37 · N. Iyobosa Edokpolor

45 · J. Moutachy

70 · F. Ourega

Our number · kauno žalgiris winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Kauno Žalgiris a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Suduva Marijampole v Kauno Žalgiris~~1.01 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 50 v 51~~3 v 1

~~The market · Kauno Žalgiris win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kauno Žalgiris win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suduva Marijampole win	27%	24%	+3
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Kauno Žalgiris win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Suduva Marijampole or draw	56%	52%	+4
Suduva Marijampole clean sheet	26%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.6 11.6 8.6 4.0 1 8.4 13.5 8.5 3.9 2 4.8 6.3 4.3 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suduva Marijampole down, Kauno Žalgiris across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,053 A Lyga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suduva Marijampole at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kauno Žalgiris away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Suduva Marijampole, 1.37 for Kauno Žalgiris. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAU 5–1 SUD · SUD 2–1 KAU · KAU 1–1 SUD · SUD 1–0 KAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 30 Aug

SUDUVA MARIJAMPOLE

WWLDDL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–4

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS

DWWWLW0–0 · 5–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	28	+36	51
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	29	+10	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	29	+8	46
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	30	−20	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0