Šiauliai v Džiugas Telšiai prediction · A Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ŠiauliaiDrawDžiugas Telšiai

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Džiugas Telšiai 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Džiugas Telšiai just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Šiauliai 35%, draw 27%, Džiugas Telšiai 38%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Šiauliai v Džiugas TelšiaiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Šiauliai win35%

Draw27%

Džiugas Telšiai win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueSiauliai central stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Šiauliai

Džiugas Telšiai

41Days since last match14

Last match: 20 Sept · A Lyga

Last match: 17 Oct · A Lyga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · džiugas telšiai winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Džiugas Telšiai a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Šiauliai v Džiugas Telšiai~~1.37 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 17 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 39~~9 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Šiauliai win	35%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Džiugas Telšiai win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Šiauliai or draw	62%	–	–
Šiauliai clean sheet	25%	–	–
Džiugas Telšiai clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.3 7.9 6.2 3.0 1 7.5 12.5 8.2 4.0 2 5.7 7.9 5.5 2.7 3 2.7 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Šiauliai down, Džiugas Telšiai across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 A Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Šiauliai at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Džiugas Telšiai away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Šiauliai, 1.44 for Džiugas Telšiai. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SIA 3–4 DZI · SIA 2–1 DZI · DZI 4–3 SIA · DZI 1–0 SIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 17 Aug

ŠIAULIAI

WLLLDL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI

LLDLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	29	+37	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+10	49
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	31	−22	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0