Panevėžys v TransINVEST Vilnius prediction · A Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PanevėžysDrawTransINVEST Vilnius

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:15

Before kick-off · Match result · TransINVEST Vilnius 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TransINVEST Vilnius are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panevėžys 34%, draw 27%, TransINVEST Vilnius 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Panevėžys v TransINVEST VilniusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Panevėžys win34%

Draw27%

TransINVEST Vilnius win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:15

RoundMatchday 35

VenueAukstaitijos Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panevėžys

TransINVEST Vilnius

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · A Lyga

Last match: 24 Oct · A Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+10	49
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · transinvest vilnius winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make TransINVEST Vilnius a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panevėžys v TransINVEST Vilnius~~1.37 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 49~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panevėžys win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
TransINVEST Vilnius win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Panevėžys or draw	61%	–	–
Panevėžys clean sheet	23%	–	–
TransINVEST Vilnius clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.1 7.8 6.3 3.2 1 7.2 12.4 8.3 4.2 2 5.5 7.8 5.6 2.8 3 2.5 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panevėžys down, TransINVEST Vilnius across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 A Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Panevėžys at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). TransINVEST Vilnius away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Panevėžys, 1.49 for TransINVEST Vilnius. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TRA 0–2 PAN · PAN 1–2 TRA · TRA 1–2 PAN · TRA 0–0 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 23 Aug

PANEVĖŽYS

LWWWLW0–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS

WLWWDW3–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	29	+37	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+10	49
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	31	−22	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0