Panevėžys v Banga

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Panevėžys win at 35%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Panevėžys 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–31–34
3. 1′KICK-OFF Panevėžys v Banga
4. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Panevėžys win 32%)
5. 45′A goal for Banga on 44′. 0–0 · 29–44–28
6. 45′We said Panevėžys at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–21–71
7. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 7–21–71
8. 45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Panevėžys 0–1 Banga
9. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Panevėžys win: 35% at kick-off, 7% now
10. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Banga win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
11. 45′HALF-TIME Panevėžys 0–1 Banga
12. 45′SECOND HALF Panevėžys 0–1 Banga
13. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Panevėžys win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
14. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Panevėžys 1–1 Banga
15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Panevėžys win: 35% at kick-off, 24% now
16. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Banga win 24%)
17. 59′Panevėžys score on 58′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 24–53–23
18. 60′We said Panevėžys at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–54–23
19. 67′A goal for Panevėžys on 66′. 1–1 · 20–61–19
20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Panevėžys · On: E. Veliulis · Off: S. Kouadio
21. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Panevėžys · On: M. Bacanin · Off: N. Petkevicius
22. 68′We said Panevėžys at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
23. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Panevėžys
24. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Banga · On: R. Filipavicius · Off: M. Sato
25. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Panevėžys
26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Panevėžys win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
27. 76′We said Panevėžys at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
28. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Banga · On: D. Lukas · Off: A. Olugbogi Corrected
29. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Banga · On: I. Venckus · Off: A. Appiah Corrected
30. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Panevėžys win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
31. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Panevėžys · On: J. Bopesu · Off: D. Balsys
32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Panevėžys · On: O. Kurtsev · Off: I. Asante
33. 89′We said Panevėžys at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
34. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 35% on Panevėžys comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
35. 93′A goal for Panevėžys on 90′. 1–1 · 2–96–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
36. 96′We said Panevėžys at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
37. 96′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
38. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Panevėžys 2–1 Banga
39. 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Panevėžys win: 35% at kick-off, 99% now
40. 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Panevėžys win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
41. FTFULL TIME Panevėžys 2–1 Banga
42. FTPanevėžys 2–1 Banga · Panevėžys win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.