Kauno Žalgiris v FK Zalgiris Vilnius prediction · A Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kauno ŽalgirisDrawFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Kauno Žalgiris 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kauno Žalgiris 51%, draw 26%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 23%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kauno Žalgiris v FK Zalgiris VilniusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris win51%

Draw26%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win23%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 34

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kauno Žalgiris

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

4Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 18 Oct · A Lyga

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kauno žalgiris winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market52%

Us51%

~~Market~~52%

We make Kauno Žalgiris a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kauno Žalgiris v FK Zalgiris Vilnius~~1.69 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 54 v 50~~1 v 2

~~The market · Kauno Žalgiris win~~52% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kauno Žalgiris win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kauno Žalgiris win	51%	52%	−1
Draw	26%	25%	+1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Kauno Žalgiris or draw	77%	77%	0
Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet	36%	–	–
FK Zalgiris Vilnius clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.8 6.0 3.6 1 10.2 12.1 5.9 2.1 2 9.2 9.3 4.8 3 5.2 5.3 2.7 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kauno Žalgiris down, FK Zalgiris Vilnius across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 A Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kauno Žalgiris at home: 3.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). FK Zalgiris Vilnius away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Kauno Žalgiris, 1.04 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FKZ 3–2 KAU · KAU 0–1 FKZ · FKZ 0–3 KAU · KAU 1–2 FKZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 6 Sept

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS

WWWLWW5–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–0

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS

WDWLWW1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	29	+37	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+10	49
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	31	−22	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0