Hegelmann Litauen v Kauno Žalgiris prediction · A Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hegelmann LitauenDrawKauno Žalgiris

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Kauno Žalgiris 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hegelmann Litauen 19%, draw 24%, Kauno Žalgiris 57%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Hegelmann Litauen v Kauno ŽalgirisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Hegelmann Litauen win19%

Draw24%

Kauno Žalgiris win57%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueRaudondvario stadionas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hegelmann Litauen

Kauno Žalgiris

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · A Lyga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kauno žalgiris winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Kauno Žalgiris a 57% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hegelmann Litauen v Kauno Žalgiris~~0.95 – 1.88

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 31 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 54~~8 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hegelmann Litauen win	19%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Hegelmann Litauen or draw	43%	–	–
Hegelmann Litauen clean sheet	16%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 7.2 10.3 10.2 6.4 3.2 1 5.1 11.2 9.3 5.8 2.8 2 2.9 5.0 4.5 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hegelmann Litauen down, Kauno Žalgiris across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 A Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hegelmann Litauen at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kauno Žalgiris away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Hegelmann Litauen, 1.88 for Kauno Žalgiris. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAU 2–0 HEG · HEG 1–1 KAU · KAU 5–0 HEG · HEG 1–1 KAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 31 Aug

HEGELMANN LITAUEN

DLDDLL2–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS

WWWLWW5–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	29	+37	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+10	49
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	31	−22	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0