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FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Suduva Marijampole

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

4–0Full time

Suduva Marijampole

A Lyga · SAT 10 OCT · LFF stadionas

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–0 Suduva Marijampole FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Zalgiris Vilnius win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Suduva Marijampole
2′Little has changed for our model: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Suduva Marijampole
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–0 Suduva Marijampole
22′A. Zivanovic scores for FK Zalgiris Vilnius on 14′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
43′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' S. M. Sanokho · Suduva Marijampole
45′🟥 RED CARD · 48' R. Grigalava · Suduva Marijampole
45′HALF-TIME FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–0 Suduva Marijampole
46′Suduva Marijampole are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 93–5–1
46′SECOND HALF FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–0 Suduva Marijampole
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Suduva Marijampole · On: T. Lucky · Off: I. Seck
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Suduva Marijampole · On: T. Milasius · Off: F. Steponavicius
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Suduva Marijampole · On: F. Tangiri · Off: A. Zivanovic
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: M. Capan · Off: O. Verbickas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: B. Teixeira · Off: M. Vareika
66′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–0 Suduva Marijampole
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Suduva Marijampole · On: O. Haydary · Off: M. Chajia
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Suduva Marijampole · On: Y. Omori · Off: S. M. Sanokho
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Suduva Marijampole · On: O. Haydary · Off: M. Chajia
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Suduva Marijampole · On: Y. Omori · Off: S. M. Sanokho
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' FK Zalgiris Vilnius
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: L. Antal · Off: P. Golubickas
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–0 Suduva Marijampole
89′FK Zalgiris Vilnius ahead on 81′ through B. Teixeira. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 86' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 5–0 Suduva Marijampole · N. Petkovic (assist D. Koy Lupano)
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–0 Suduva Marijampole
FTFK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–0 Suduva Marijampole · FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win39%

Draw29%

Suduva Marijampole win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:15

Venue · LFF stadionas

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Sarkauskas

18 D. Sesplaukis

4 D. Koy Lupano

15 P. Bosancic

21 D. Franke

22 O. Verbickas

77 Y. Kendysh

27 M. Vareika

10 P. Golubickas

7 N. Mihajlovic

19 S. Bilenkyi

Coach · Andrius Skerla

Substitutes

1 · C. Olses

26 · Y. Zahary

5 · G. Turda

44 · P. Matyzonok

6 · M. Capan

14 · M. Setkus

9 · G. Jarusevicius

70 · B. Teixeira

29 · K. Bicka

16 · J. Usavicius

8 · L. Antal

11 · N. Petkovic

Suduva Marijampole

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Zenkevicius

11 M. Chajia

5 Z. Baltrunas

15 A. Zivanovic

23 R. Grigalava

14 F. Steponavicius

6 A. Sabo

8 S. Lawson

7 I. Seck

16 Y. Tsykalo

94 S. M. Sanokho

Coach · Donatas Vencevicius

Substitutes

9 · T. Lucky

10 · O. Haydary

13 · M. Mikulenas

18 · T. Milasius

19 · F. Tangiri

20 · Y. Omori

26 · D. Antanavicius

66 · R. Pacesa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Sarkauskas

18 D. Sesplaukis

4 D. Koy Lupano

15 P. Bosancic

21 D. Franke

22 O. Verbickas

77 Y. Kendysh

27 M. Vareika

10 P. Golubickas

7 N. Mihajlovic

19 S. Bilenkyi

Coach · Andrius Skerla

Substitutes

1 · C. Olses

26 · Y. Zahary

5 · G. Turda

44 · P. Matyzonok

6 · M. Capan

14 · M. Setkus

9 · G. Jarusevicius

70 · B. Teixeira

29 · K. Bicka

16 · J. Usavicius

8 · L. Antal

11 · N. Petkovic

Suduva Marijampole

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Zenkevicius

11 M. Chajia

5 Z. Baltrunas

15 A. Zivanovic

23 R. Grigalava

14 F. Steponavicius

6 A. Sabo

8 S. Lawson

7 I. Seck

16 Y. Tsykalo

94 S. M. Sanokho

Coach · Donatas Vencevicius

Substitutes

9 · T. Lucky

10 · O. Haydary

13 · M. Mikulenas

18 · T. Milasius

19 · F. Tangiri

20 · Y. Omori

26 · D. Antanavicius

66 · R. Pacesa

Our number · fk zalgiris vilnius winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make FK Zalgiris Vilnius a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fk zalgiris vilnius win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Suduva Marijampole win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−6
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw	68%	69%	−1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius clean sheet	32%	–	–
Suduva Marijampole clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.9 8.9 5.8 2.3 1 10.1 13.6 7.2 2.9 2 7.2 8.1 4.7 3 3.2 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Zalgiris Vilnius down, Suduva Marijampole across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,049 A Lyga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 143 played.

Head to head

23 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 13 of 23 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Suduva Marijampole away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 1.16 for Suduva Marijampole. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

23 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 23

~~Both scored~~11 of 23

~~Last meetings~~SUD 0–0 FKZ · SUD 1–1 FKZ · FKZ 1–0 SUD · SUD 1–3 FKZ

Form · last six in A Lyga

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS

WLWDWL2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3

SUDUVA MARIJAMPOLE

WWWLDD2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	30	+41	57
2	Suduva Marijampole	30	+22	56
3	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+16	51
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+8	48
5	Banga	30	+13	47
6	Džiugas Telšiai	30	−1	44
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	30	−17	27
9	Šiauliai	31	−32	21
10	FK Trakai	16	−37	3