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FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

4–1Full time

Hegelmann Litauen

A Lyga · SUN 18 OCT · LFF stadionas

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–1 Hegelmann Litauen FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius win~~55%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.305

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.170

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Zalgiris Vilnius win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
1′KICK-OFF FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen
31′A goal for FK Zalgiris Vilnius on 31′. 0–0 · 48–31–21
31′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 55% at kick-off, 79% now
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' FK Zalgiris Vilnius
34′Hegelmann Litauen find the net on 34′. 1–1. 1–1 · 47–32–21
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–1 Hegelmann Litauen
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 55% at kick-off, 47% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' FK Zalgiris Vilnius
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–36–20
45′HALF-TIME FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–1 Hegelmann Litauen
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' FK Zalgiris Vilnius
46′SECOND HALF FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–1 Hegelmann Litauen
54′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–19
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 38%)
60′A goal for FK Zalgiris Vilnius on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–1 Hegelmann Litauen
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 15%)
61′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
61′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–15–3
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Hegelmann Litauen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hegelmann Litauen · On: A. Harouna · Off: M. Remeikis
68′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: M. Setkus · Off: K. Upstas
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: B. Teixeira · Off: N. Mihajlovic
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: L. Antal · Off: O. Verbickas
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Hegelmann Litauen
73′FK Zalgiris Vilnius score on 72′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
73′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–1 Hegelmann Litauen
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hegelmann Litauen · On: D. Pasilys · Off: E. Kausinis
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hegelmann Litauen · On: A. Shchedryi · Off: D. Kazlauskas
76′71′: M. Vareika on the scoresheet for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: M. Capan · Off: M. Vareika
81′We said FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hegelmann Litauen · On: L. Jonaitis · Off: V. Armanavicius
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FK Zalgiris Vilnius · On: G. Jarusevicius · Off: P. Golubickas
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Hegelmann Litauen
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' FK Zalgiris Vilnius
92′FK Zalgiris Vilnius find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–1 Hegelmann Litauen
93′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–1 Hegelmann Litauen
FTFK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–1 Hegelmann Litauen · FK Zalgiris Vilnius win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Zalgiris Vilnius are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 55%, draw 24%, Hegelmann Litauen 21%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Hegelmann LitauenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win55%

Draw24%

Hegelmann Litauen win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueLFF stadionas

RefereeO. Abramavicius

Line-ups

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Hegelmann Litauen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Hegelmann Litauen

8Days since last match28

Last match: 10 Oct · A Lyga

Last match: 20 Sept · A Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	29	+11	47
8	Hegelmann Litauen	29	−17	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Sarkauskas

13 K. Upstas

4 D. Koy Lupano

15 P. Bosancic

18 D. Sesplaukis

22 O. Verbickas

77 Y. Kendysh

27 M. Vareika

10 P. Golubickas

7 N. Mihajlovic

19 S. Bilenkyi

Coach · Andrius Skerla

Substitutes

1 · C. Olses

3 · S. Fogning

5 · G. Turda

6 · M. Capan

8 · L. Antal

9 · G. Jarusevicius

11 · N. Petkovic

14 · M. Setkus

16 · J. Usavicius

29 · K. Bicka

44 · P. Matyzonok

70 · B. Teixeira

Hegelmann Litauen

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Paukste

16 M. Remeikis

30 B. Isaac

44 Nathan Silva

8 V. Armanavicius

37 V. Radonja

77 Wesley

67 A. Kaulinis

27 Richard

9 D. Kazlauskas

21 E. Kausinis

Coach · Tadas Vilkevicius

Substitutes

31 · R. Bagdonavicius

5 · A. Puerto

6 · A. Harouna

7 · C. Duke

10 · S. Oum Gouet

18 · R. Sadauskas

19 · D. Pasilys

20 · L. Jonaitis

24 · D. Sinkevicius

26 · D. Slendzoka

45 · A. Shchedryi

Our number · fk zalgiris vilnius winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market66%

Us55%

~~Market~~66%

We make FK Zalgiris Vilnius a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen~~1.88 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 8 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 47 v 26~~3 v 8

~~The market · FK Zalgiris Vilnius win~~66% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Zalgiris Vilnius win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win	55%	66%	−11
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Hegelmann Litauen win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	61%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw	79%	86%	−7
FK Zalgiris Vilnius clean sheet	35%	–	–
Hegelmann Litauen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.4 4.9 3.1 1 9.0 11.3 5.6 2.0 2 9.1 9.5 5.1 3 5.7 6.0 3.2 4 2.8 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Zalgiris Vilnius down, Hegelmann Litauen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,052 A Lyga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 146 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hegelmann Litauen away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 1.07 for Hegelmann Litauen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HEG 2–3 FKZ · FKZ 1–3 HEG · HEG 0–0 FKZ · FKZ 3–1 HEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 8 Aug

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS

LWDWLW0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 4–0

HEGELMANN LITAUEN

LDDLDD0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	28	+36	51
2	Suduva Marijampole	29	+10	50
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	29	+11	47
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	29	+8	46
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	29	−17	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0