Džiugas Telšiai v TransINVEST Vilnius prediction · A Lyga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Džiugas Telšiai 3–3 TransINVEST Vilnius TRANSINVEST VILNIUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TransINVEST Vilnius win~~43%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said TransINVEST Vilnius win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: TransINVEST Vilnius was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 29–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Džiugas Telšiai v TransINVEST Vilnius
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Džiugas Telšiai
41′We published TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Džiugas Telšiai 0–1 TransINVEST Vilnius
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
42′TransINVEST Vilnius score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
45′HALF-TIME Džiugas Telšiai 0–1 TransINVEST Vilnius
46′We published TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
48′SECOND HALF Džiugas Telšiai 0–1 TransINVEST Vilnius
49′A goal for Džiugas Telšiai on 49′. 0–1 · 6–19–75
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–19–76
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Džiugas Telšiai 1–2 TransINVEST Vilnius
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Džiugas Telšiai 1–2 TransINVEST Vilnius
51′A goal for TransINVEST Vilnius on 51′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–19–76
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Džiugas Telšiai
64′We published TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Džiugas Telšiai · On: D. Zevzikovas · Off: D. Vinckus
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Džiugas Telšiai · On: Andrezinho · Off: V. Piliukaitis
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' TransINVEST Vilnius · On: C. Nwoga · Off: Y. Glushach
74′We published TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
81′We published TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
82′A goal for TransINVEST Vilnius on 82′. 1–2 · 0–8–91
84′We published TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Džiugas Telšiai 1–3 TransINVEST Vilnius
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 43% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′We published TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–5–95
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Džiugas Telšiai 2–3 TransINVEST Vilnius
89′Džiugas Telšiai find the net on 88′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–96
90′Full time, 3–3. We called TransINVEST Vilnius at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 3–3 · 0–100–0
92′We said TransINVEST Vilnius at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–3 · 3–94–3
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Džiugas Telšiai 3–3 TransINVEST Vilnius
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was TransINVEST Vilnius win 3%)
93′B. Asomugha scores for Džiugas Telšiai on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 2–96–2
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' TransINVEST Vilnius win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
94′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME Džiugas Telšiai 3–3 TransINVEST Vilnius
FTDžiugas Telšiai 3–3 TransINVEST Vilnius · TransINVEST Vilnius win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TransINVEST Vilnius are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Džiugas Telšiai 29%, draw 27%, TransINVEST Vilnius 43%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Džiugas Telšiai v TransINVEST VilniusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Džiugas Telšiai win29%

Draw27%

TransINVEST Vilnius win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueTelsiai Central Stadium

Line-ups

Džiugas Telšiai

TransINVEST Vilnius

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Džiugas Telšiai

TransINVEST Vilnius

28Days since last match28

Last match: 19 Sept · A Lyga

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	28	+8	45
6	Džiugas Telšiai	28	−4	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Džiugas Telšiai

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Paukste

2 V. Vermeulen

23 I. Cisse

5 M. Rutkovskis

46 J. Wawszczyk

6 N. Pavlovskij

10 V. Piliukaitis

7 Pedro Bahia

8 D. Bunchukov

27 D. Vinckus

48 T. Stelmokas

Coach · Andrius Lipskis

Substitutes

22 · M. Rybcynskij

14 · D. Zevzikovas

40 · O. Grauslys

44 · B. Asomugha

70 · A. Ouattara

77 · Andrezinho

88 · M. Meinorius

90 · R. Sobowale

97 · A. Balasanov

TransINVEST Vilnius

Formation not confirmed

25 I. Mostovei

80 E. Kloniunas

5 R. Sveikauskas

49 B. Tavares

32 M. Musolitin

88 D. Sluta

17 T. Mavretic

19 O. Boateng

23 Xabi Auzmendi

8 Y. Glushach

9 S. Milosevic

Coach · Marius Stankevicius

Substitutes

1 · J. Virvilas

6 · I. Bilbao

7 · D. Bosnjak

10 · C. Nwoga

11 · N. Akosah-Bempah

12 · N. Petkus

13 · H. Tanaka

15 · Koffi

44 · A. Zulpa

Our number · transinvest vilnius winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market47%

Us43%

~~Market~~47%

We make TransINVEST Vilnius a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Džiugas Telšiai v TransINVEST Vilnius~~1.19 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 9 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 38 v 45~~6 v 4

~~The market · TransINVEST Vilnius win~~47% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · TransINVEST Vilnius win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Džiugas Telšiai win	29%	27%	+2
Draw	27%	26%	+1
TransINVEST Vilnius win	43%	47%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Džiugas Telšiai or draw	57%	53%	+4
Džiugas Telšiai clean sheet	23%	–	–
TransINVEST Vilnius clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.2 9.2 7.6 3.8 1 7.2 12.8 8.7 4.4 2 4.9 7.0 5.2 2.6 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Džiugas Telšiai down, TransINVEST Vilnius across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 A Lyga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Džiugas Telšiai at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). TransINVEST Vilnius away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Džiugas Telšiai, 1.51 for TransINVEST Vilnius. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TRA 1–0 DZI · DZI 3–2 TRA · TRA 0–0 DZI · TRA 1–2 DZI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 9 Aug

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI

WLLDLL4–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 0–2

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS

LDWLWW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	28	+36	51
2	Suduva Marijampole	29	+10	50
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	29	+11	47
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	28	+8	45
5	Banga	28	+4	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	28	−4	38
7	Panevėžys	28	−14	32
8	Hegelmann Litauen	29	−17	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0