Džiugas Telšiai v Panevėžys prediction · A Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Džiugas TelšiaiDrawPanevėžys

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Džiugas Telšiai 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Džiugas Telšiai just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Džiugas Telšiai 36%, draw 28%, Panevėžys 36%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Džiugas Telšiai v PanevėžysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Džiugas Telšiai win36%

Draw28%

Panevėžys win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueTelsiai Central Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Džiugas Telšiai

Panevėžys

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · A Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · džiugas telšiai winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market37%

Us36%

~~Market~~37%

We make Džiugas Telšiai a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Džiugas Telšiai v Panevėžys~~1.31 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 17 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 35~~6 v 7

~~The market · Džiugas Telšiai win~~37% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Džiugas Telšiai win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Džiugas Telšiai win	36%	37%	−1
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Panevėžys win	36%	36%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	57%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Džiugas Telšiai or draw	64%	64%	0
Džiugas Telšiai clean sheet	28%	–	–
Panevėžys clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.6 8.7 6.2 2.8 1 8.7 13.2 7.9 3.5 2 6.3 7.9 5.1 2.3 3 2.8 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Džiugas Telšiai down, Panevėžys across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 A Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Džiugas Telšiai at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Panevėžys away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Džiugas Telšiai, 1.31 for Panevėžys. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAN 1–1 DZI · DZI 4–0 PAN · PAN 0–1 DZI · DZI 1–4 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 17 Aug

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI

LLDLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 3–3

PANEVĖŽYS

LWWWLW0–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	29	+37	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+10	49
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	31	−22	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0