Banga v Šiauliai prediction · A Lyga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BangaDrawŠiauliai

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Banga 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Banga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Banga 54%, draw 26%, Šiauliai 20%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Banga v ŠiauliaiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Banga win54%

Draw26%

Šiauliai win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:15

RoundMatchday 34

VenueGargzdai stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Banga

Šiauliai

8Days since last match35

Last match: 17 Oct · A Lyga

Last match: 20 Sept · A Lyga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Banga	29	+3	41
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · banga winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market63%

Us54%

~~Market~~63%

We make Banga a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Banga v Šiauliai~~1.68 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 17 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 41 v 17~~5 v 9

~~The market · Banga win~~63% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Banga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Banga win	54%	63%	−9
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Šiauliai win	20%	15%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Banga or draw	80%	85%	−5
Banga clean sheet	40%	–	–
Šiauliai clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.7 6.2 3.3 1 11.6 12.1 5.2 2 10.2 9.2 4.3 3 5.8 5.2 2.4 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Banga down, Šiauliai across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 A Lyga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A Lyga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Banga at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Šiauliai away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Banga, 0.92 for Šiauliai. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SIA 1–3 BAN · BAN 1–1 SIA · SIA 0–0 BAN · SIA 1–3 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in A Lyga this season · since 17 Aug

BANGA

DDLLWL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

ŠIAULIAI

WLLLDL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	29	+37	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	+14	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	+10	49
5	Banga	29	+3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	−4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	−13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	31	−22	26
9	Šiauliai	29	−34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0