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Ulinzi Stars v Tusker
Ulinzi StarsTuskerFKF Premier League · SUN 11 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Tusker win at 35%.
- 2′KICK-OFF Ulinzi Stars v Tusker
- 3′Much as we predicted: Tusker was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 33–33–35
- 4′Much as we predicted: Tusker was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 32–33–34
- 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Tusker win 32%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Ulinzi Stars 0–0 Tusker
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Tusker win 28%)
- 46′SECOND HALF Ulinzi Stars 0–0 Tusker
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Tusker
- 76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ulinzi Stars 0–2 Tusker
- FTFULL TIME Ulinzi Stars 0–2 Tusker
- FTUlinzi Stars 0–2 Tusker · Tusker win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.
The model’s prediction on this page stays free.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Ulinzi Stars win32%Tusker win35%Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00
Match timeline
All events
Ulinzi StarsMINTuskerEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Ulinzi Stars
Tusker
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Tusker a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 46% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulinzi Stars win | 32% | 20% | +12 |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Tusker win | 35% | 46% | −12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 32% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 38% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 16% | −4 |
| Ulinzi Stars or draw | 65% | 54% | +12 |
| Ulinzi Stars clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Tusker clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
10 meetings since 2022Form · last six in FKF Premier League
ULINZI STARS
TUSKER
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shabana | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 |  APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 |  Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 |  Posta Rangers FC | 1 | −1 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.